The markets started the week higher in anticipation of a Fed break. With the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, investors are of the opinion the Fed will not hike interest rates and that CPI data will be lower. They put that optimism to work on Monday pushing the indexes higher. The S&P 500 closed above the 4300 resistance, NASDAQ at new highs, Small Caps moved into positive territory for the day and Semiconductors gapped higher to lead overall. The one interesting move on the day came from the VIX index moving up to 15. This could be a sign of the markets becoming overbought. Treasury yields were slightly higher on the 10-year bond. Crude is juggling between the OPEC proposed production cuts and news out of China relative to their lack of growth. Oil fell 4.3% on Monday as Goldman Sachs cut their price outlook for the commodity. Economic data will be front and center for the week as plenty of data to digest. The charts show a positive break from the recent consolidation and a continuation of the uptrend. We have discussed the positive setups on the charts and now we see how far they move ahead of the FOMC decision. Taking what is offered and managing the risk.
The consolidation breakout offered more entry points with positive patterns on the charts. XLK and XLY both led the markets higher on the day continuing their leadership role. IWM, IJH, XLI, XLB, and IYR all attempting to resume upside moves. Seven of the eleven sectors closed in positive territory. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.1%. The NASDAQ was up 0.9% with SOXX up 3.2%. Small Caps (Russell 2000) were down 0.4%. The ten-year treasury yield closed at 3.76% up 2 bps on the day. Crude (USO) was down 4.2% testing support. (UGA) was down 4.3%. Natural gas (UNG) was up 0.3% holding near the lows. The dollar was flat and testing. We are focused on managing the risk and letting stocks run for now.
ONE Chart to Watch: QQQ – 1) Held $347.55 moving higher on Monday. 2) Short-term trend is UP… starting from the January low. 3) Accelerated above the trendline with verticle move. Tested the move and resumed the uptrend. 4) TQQQ $355.06 Monday.
Additional Charts to Watch: SPY – Moved to new highs resuming the uptrend. Trendline off the March lows is in play. IWM – broke from the trading range moving higher and offered an entry at $178.95 (stop $182.732 adjusted)… testing near the highs. SOXX – cleared $497.61 resistance leading upside move. Entry $492.65. USO – oversold… gapped lower testing bottom end of the trading range… volatility on speculation about consumption. OPEC+ still weighing on the commodity and Goldman Sachs downgraded the commodity price outlook. Supply and demand at work… watching how it unfolds.
Leadership – NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, SP500, XLY, XLK, SOXX… QQQ – All resumed the upside trend with a break from consolidation. Watching how this unfolds and the next move. Manage the risk accordingly. Technology has been the leading sector. Consumers (XLY) added to the uptrend. SOXX gapping higher.
Laggards – SP400, RUTX, USO, XLF, XLI… all made positive moves of late with a solid reversal on the charts. IJH, IWM, XLI, XLE, and XLF all made moves to confirm a bounce from their respective consolidation patterns. We stated these sectors needed to participate if the markets were to run higher and they have done that of late. Letting them play our near term.
Interesting Charts: USO (testing the bottom of the range). FCX (bottom reversal). HON (trading range breakout). KSS (breakout above resistance).
ON TAP TODAY: 1) Crude oil… up or down setting up for a move. $75 is the key resistance point for oil. 2) Breakouts… KRE, OIH, IYR, DFEN. 3) Breakdown… IGV caught my attention… AI stocks saw some profit-taking… QQQ is near the current highs… watching how they respond Monday.
Previous Charts of Interest – Still in Play: AAPL (reversal confirmed). Added 5/7. Holding. AMZN (bottom reversal) Added 5/7. SOXX reversal. Added 5/17 reversal. TQQQ breakout. Added 5/17. Holding. SRS Added 5/17. SJB Added 5/17. LABU (break up from bottoming range). Added 5/17. ARKK (bottom reversal). Added 5/18. FNGU (breaking out). Added Tuesday 5/8. GOOG (Channel breakout). Added 5/9. Added to position 6/6. MSFT (break from flag pattern). Added 5/18. CSCO (bottom reversal… good earnings). Added 5/19. NFLX (test to $350 and bounce?). Added 5/24. AMD (consolidation top from a move higher). Added 6/6. AI (on test move lower). Added 6/6. DIA (break from consolidaiton). Added 6/8. TGT (bear flag). Added puts 6/9.
Stops Hit: None
Quote of the Day: “A psychiatrist asks a lot of expensive questions your wife asks for nothing..” – Joey Adams
The S&P 500 index closed up 40 points to 4338 the index was up 0.93% with below-average volume on the day. The index made the move above 4300 with 4400 next level to clear. Managing the risk of extended move near term. Seven of the eleven sectors closed higher on the day with technology as the leader up 2.1%. The worst performer of the day was energy down 0.9%. The VIX index closed at 15 up on the day despite the gains on the index. The uptrend from the October low remains in play.
Sector Rotation and the S&P 500 Index:
XLB – Basic Materials attempting to reverse the downtrend off the January highs following a bounce at support. Moved back above the 200-day MA The sector was up 0.4% for the week. Trend reversal in play.
XLU – Utilities bear flag on the chart sports a reversal. The longer-term trend from the December highs remains down. The sector was up 1.9% for the week.
IYZ – Telecom downtrend from the February highs and trading in a bottoming range. The sector was down 0.3% for the week. Cleared $21.63 resistance.
XLP – Consumer Staples downtrend from the April highs and consolidating near support. Need to clear $73.50. The sector was up 0.6% for the week.
XLI – Industrials broad trading range from the March lows. The trend broke to the upside hitting resistance at the $102.40 level. The sector was up 1.4% for the week. Broke above resistance.
XLV – Healthcare Bottom reversal in play $130.68 level to clear. The sector was up 0.1% for the week. XBI, IHE, IHF, and IHI all bounced. Tried to break higher through resistance… patience. Cleared $130.68 resistance.
XLE – Energy bounced at the lows along with crude. The sector was up 0.4% for the week. The downtrend is in play from the November highs. Needs to clear $82.70 on the upside. Down on decline in crude.
XLK – Technology The sector broke from the trading range clearing the $154.42 resistance and going vertical. Posted a flag pattern this week and watching how it unfolds. Could test before resuming upside. The sector was down 0.5% for the week. Providing leadership for the broad index. Hit new highs with SOXX jumping higher.
XLF – Financials consolidation pattern needs to clear the April highs. The sector was up 1% for the week. The trend is down from the February highs. Banks are the key to the outlook.
XLY – Consumer Discretionary Broke higher from the consolidation pattern in play on the chart. The sector continues to find positive data points to keep the trend alive. One of the key leaders for the broad index. The sector was up 2.6% for the week. Hit new highs.
IYR – REITs broke lower from the trading range and tested the March lows with a bottom reversal in play. The sector was up 0.1% for the week. The negative influence of interest rates and reports of vacancies in commercial rentals are rising. Own SRS on downside risk. Residential moving up… commercial moving down.
Summary: The index posted a solid upside day with a move to highs. Watching how this unfolds in the next few days relative to all the data and the FOMC meeting. Seven sectors closed higher on the day… back to technology and consumer leading the upside sectors. Remains a sector-driven market. XLK led on the day. XLY led on the day. KRE bounced through the resistance and needs to clear $44.75. XLE needs to clear $82.74. XLV, XBI, XLI, IYR, IYZ, and XLU found support and bounced off the lows. The broad index remains in an uptrend from the October low looking for breadth to widen and show stronger money flow from investors. News has been the primary mover of stocks, and economic and financial data be the highlight of the next few days. Taking what is offered near term and letting it all unfold. Remember two things; first, the trend is your friend, and second, don’t fight the Fed.
(The notes above are posted at the end of each week based on activity from the previous week’s trading. The BOLD/ITALIC comments are the current-day changes worthy of note.)
KEY INDICATORS/SECTORS & LEADERS TO WATCH:
The NASDAQ index closed up 202 points to 13,461 as the index was up 1.53% for the day. The index remains in the uptrend and broke higher. Support is 12,977. Watching how the trend unfolds short term. SOXX gapped higher on the day. IGV moved higher as well. Taking what is offered long and short.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) was up 1.69% with the mega caps leading on the day. The move is overextended but moving higher nonetheless. The sector had a positive bias with 81 of the 100 stocks closing in positive territory for the day. Added back TQQQ for reentry.
Semiconductors (SOXX) broke above the previous highs and consolidating in a flag pattern. The sector was up 0.6% for the week. Watching how it unfolds and the next opportunity. Broke higher from the flag pattern to continue uptrend.
Software (IGV) Broke above the $318 resistance adding to the uptrend. Added IGV $291. Stop $322.80 (adjusted). The sector was up 0.02% for the week. Big test midweek and manage to bounce back… managing our stop. Moved above $355.96 resistance resuming leadership role.
Biotech (IBB) The sector moved back above the $128.35 level. Remains in a downtrend from the January highs. The sector was down 0.1% for the week.
Small-Cap Index (IWM) lagging overall but did manage to break from the trading range… looking for follow through to the move. The sector was up 1.6% for the week. Letting it unfold. Modest upside.
Transports (IYT) Made a break higher from the trading range and needs to clear the $234 resistance. The sector was up 0.8% for the week. If the markets are to move higher overall they need transport to be positive. $233.95 resistance in play.
The Dollar (UUP) The dollar remains volatile but produced an uptrend back to the March highs. What is on the horizon? If the dollar gets stronger watch the ripple effect… The dollar was down 0.3% for the week. FOMC meeting results will have an impact on the dollar. Holding stronger.
Treasury Yield 10-Year Bond (TNX) The yield closed the week at 3.74% up from 3.69% last week. Rates are looking at the FOMC meeting and the decision the Fed makes along with guidance. TLT was down 0.07% for the week. Watching into the FOMC move.
Crude oil (USO) Remains in a short-term downtrend but it did manage to bounce off the lows. The pressure will be on the upside longer term… watching how the short term unfolds and what opportunities are offered. USO was down 1.9% for the week. OPEC+ voluntary cuts up to 1 million barrels per day… oil moved up slightly then sold lower on economic news from China. Fell to support at bottom of the current range.
Gold (GLD) The commodity moved sideways with the dollar indecisive on the week. letting this unfold with the trend higher from the October lows. The metal was up 0.5% for the week.
Questions to Ponder: Navigating Uncertainty
Stagflation – is defined as persistent inflation combined with stagnant consumer demand and relatively high unemployment. Do we have this situation currently in the US economy? If it doesn’t exist in a purely technically defined way, it is creating the same economic environment currently in the US, and the current administration is in denial. Thus, we will continue to feel the effects of this until we change course. Layoffs from early 2022 to current continue… Bankruptcy filings are not slowing as the hit the fastest pace since 2010. War – Costs… Ukrain/Russia endless war isn’t good for the US economy. Inflation is here 1970’s style. Markets are giving the Fed cover to hike again with the surge in technology stocks. Although the leadership is narrow. Things are not as good as they seem on the surface.
Banking Facts: Money market inflows surged again… outflows remain from banks to money market funds… they gained $31.7 billion to a new record $5.42 trillion… 6th straight week of increasing flows… “sound and resilient”. The Fed is giving just enough money through the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) facility to keep from a collapse (lending rose to $97.6 billion from $91 billion last week). “Sound and resilient” are the words uttered by many… not even close.
H.8 Fed report showed some more wizardry numbers… seasonally adjusted bank deposits jumped $102 billion… interestingly enough without the adjustment, bank deposit flows fell $28 billion. Changing numbers on a sheet of paper doesn’t change reality.
Janet Yellen has been on the financial stations talking about more “consolidation” in the banking sector. Under normal circumstances we would view that as mergers and acquisitions… but, it seems like she is talking about takeover relative to the failure of more banks. Despite that outlook, banks have rallied more than 12% in the last week. Take what is offered but manage your risk accordingly.
Interest Rates: Fed Funds Rate currently stands at 5.25%… Jamie Diamon (JP Morgan) stated in a presentation he believes rates go to at least 6% and possibly 7% before inflation breaks. Think about what that means for the financial markets if that is true.
Data is not supporting a Fed pause in rates. PCE was higher, core PCE was higher, personal income higher, personal spending higher, durable goods higher, jobs higher, and capital investments higher… FOMC meeting is one week away and the pressure will be on the Fed to hike rates based on the data.
Our longer-term view is still negative, but nothing goes straight down or up… there are always positive and negative swings in a longer-term trend. A look at the daily chart from the October lows validates exactly that premise with the trend higher overall but plenty of volatility along the way. With the trend higher for more than six months it puts the broad indexes in intermediate uptrend… this is a positive overall for the broad markets. We remain focused on short-term trades based on the short-term volatility and until there is longer-term directional clarity we remain with our current approach. Trading the volatility has performed better than holding through the cycle. Sector-driven activity is in play short term with narrow leadership. The breadth did improve over the last few weeks, but we will need to see follow-through on the moves. News is in the driver’s seat as we take positions that are technically moving and offering opportunities. The key remains, know where you are now, know what is happening now, and know what is on the horizon… act accordingly. The goal now is to manage the risk of positions, take what is offered… short or long, and then manage your money.
Monday: The charts broke from the consolidation patterns to start the week. Technology remains the leader along with consumer discretionary. SOXX gapped higher to lead the sectors. Trading the trends on sectors showing strength. We see the overall trend is still up from the October lows. Major indexes have moved higher on the mega-cap moves and technology. The laggards continue to move higher broadening out the move. Manage the risk and see how this unfolds near term. Showing extended moves in technology.
What I am watching on Tuesday: 1) More consolidation and juggling from the bounce… Inflation worries and the Fed… the break higher in XLK, SOXX, IGV, QQQ… more opportunities ahead. 2) Bounce off the lows in lagging sectors to follow through on upside moves… 3) Supply Chain worries from LA to Seattle as workers strike… still not in the mainstream media… not going to be pretty for inflation data. 4) Crypto attacks from the government COIN sued by the SEC and Binance sued as well. Is Crypto a security? The government has decided it wants to take it down by regulating it to death… taking away its freedom. 5) Interest rates as we move towards the FOMC meeting. 6) CPI & PPI data. 7) Follow through to Monday’s bounce higher.
Decide what you’re doing before the market opens based on your beliefs. Entry. Exit. Target. Define the risk of the position. Nothing more… Nothing less.
“Vision without action is a daydream… Action without vision is a nightmare.” Japanese proverb
The goal of these notes is to allow you, the investor, to learn how to see the market development as the progression through the sector develops based on news, speculation, and data. Data drives long-term results and develops trends… speculation and news are short-term drivers and offer higher risk trading opportunities. Through the use of both technical and fundamental data, we can have greater confidence in our trading strategies with a disciplined approach to investing and managing the risk of our money.