Inside the Markets

Key Indicators to Watch

Thursday 3/1 – Bounce on PCE data calmer and remains in an uptrend. The inflation data helped along with comments from the Fed, but we still have Feb data, jobs report, and the FOMC on tap going forward. The focus is to manage positions to the overall risk. Solid and methodical on Thursday.

Moves of Interest: Upside – XLY (broke higher), IYT (tested bounced), DBA (tested), WEBL (testing), UUP (testing), SOXX (higher). Downside – TLT (broke support $92.79… bounced), UNG (big bounce/setting up trade entry) Sideway XLU (moved back to support, bounced), ITB (broke from range higher), Bottom Reversal USO (broke above resistance), GLD (higher). Breakouts – IWM (at December highs), QQQ (bounced), BOIL, XLE, IYR, XLF, XLB, CVNA

S&P 500 Revenue Growth Y/Y is picking up.

Semiconductors (SOXX) Added trade position $597. Stop $620 (Sold half @ $625). Topping pattern in the uptrend. Holding near the highs.

Retail – XRT broke from a cup & handle pattern offering an entry signal. Entry $73.92. Stop $74.15. WMT regaining momentum following earnings. Solid break higher of late.

Themes and Storylines to Watch

Apple (AAPL) – Is Apple’s Time Short? Technically the chart is in a downtrending triangle. A break of support near the $180 level would be a negative as well as a short-term signal to be short the stock. $183.53 is the 200-day MA as well. Money flow has been declining. $167.75 would be the initial target. Short entry signal (AAPD $21.58).

Homebuilders (ITB/NAIL) Watching patiently. In an extended channel or trading range. Bounced on New Home Sales up 8.3%. Entry $103. Stop $99.75. Broke higher from the channel again.

Interest rates on the ten-year bond have moved back above the 4% mark sparking a move lower in the bonds. Took profit at $35.40 TMV. Chatter from the Fed pushed interest rates lower on Friday. TMF entry $53.15. Watching for optimism bounce on Fed comments relative to cutting rates later in the year.

Transportation (IYT) is breaking higher as challenges remain in the Red Sea. Costs rising and stressing the supply chains again. Watching how the storyline unfolds as we manage positions. BDRY solid move Friday adjusted the stop.

Summary: The stall at or near the highs has my attention. The markets are setting up for a test of the current uptrend. The number of new highs is declining… the number of stocks trading above the 200 & 50-day MA is declining… the numbers don’t lie, sometimes it takes time for investors to believe them… thus, the consolidation patterns showing on the charts.

* All charts are courtesy of TC2000

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