Uptrend remains, but Dow streak comes to an end

Friday – Notes & Research

Negative close on Friday, but positive week overall. As we look at the close on the three major indexes they remain in a defined uptrend with no real sign of selling off. Now as sure as I say that there will be something on Monday to make me regret the comment. Regardless you have to go with what the charts are saying combined with the fundamental data. Thus, the uptrend is in play and we will go with that until something changes. Scanning for rotation we continue to see developments on the upside along with some warnings.

  1. 10-day win streak ends for Dow, but the uptrend remains in play.
  2. Options expiration had some intraday volatility, but no big changes overall.
  3. Volatility (11.3 new low) and volume disappears along with the interest from investors. Warning sign or just investors waiting for the next buying opportunity? Many are voting warning sign, but so far they have been wrong.
  4. S&P 500 index now 5 points away from closing high? What does it mean? Not much if the index doesn’t find buyers to continue the upside move.
  5. Crude Oil is pushing to resistance at $93.50. Watch how it plays out.
  6. On Thursday 14 of the 17 banks received approval to move forward with their plans on dividends and stock buybacks. KBE on Friday closed lower, but ended the day well off the lows. BBT failed to get approval and the stock traded down 2.3%. GS and JPM received conditional approval to proceed surprising investors. GS opened lower and closed up on the day. JPM bigger problems than the approval issues down 1.5%.
  7. Global market continues to struggle at resistance. The EAFE index did manage to gain on the week and clear resistance of the January high. Europe is still make progress, but stalled at resistance.
  8. Trading remains on the low volume side and that is a concern for investors looking forward. Spend some time this weekend updating your positions and managing your stops.

Good week of trading, but the negative tone from analyst continues. They will be right eventually and we have to be prepared for what happens. Stay focused, be disciplined and follow your plan.

Economic Data:

CPI up 0.7%, Manufacturing steady, production higher and consumer sentiment falls. mixed day of economic data for investors.

Economic Events & Calendar 

1) US Equities:

S&P 500 Index closed down along with the NASDAQ and the Dow. String of up days comes to an end.

The uptrend remain in play short term off the November 15th low. As stated below in the charts it has bounced off the December 28th and February 25th tests as well to continue the uptrend.

Sector Rotation Strategy: 

The February 25th low pivot point remains in play this week. The chart below shows the leadership from XLY & XLF holding the move higher. XLB remains positive in the upside mix. XLV, healthcare pushed lower on Friday to undercut the S&P 500 index as a laggard. Energy (XLE) is producing a volatile uptrend short term. IYZ, telecom finally resumed some upside movement on Thursday, but gave some back on Friday. Not enough on the downside to raise unjust concerns, but we have to manage the risk should the selling gain any traction near term.

Scatter 225

December 28th Pivot Point for uptrend following the Fiscal Cliff pullback test. The trend has continued to push higher after the February 25th test. See above.

Scatter1228

November 15th Pivot Point for current uptrend. Target 1550-1575. The uptrend off the November low remains in play. The trend has now overcome two attempted moves lower to maintain the uptrend.

SP500Scatter

Sector Rotation of Interest:

Telecom РOn March 1st the sector established a  low and pivot point. It has continued to push higher over the last week making an attempt to head back towards the February highs. Added to the S&P 500 Watch List for entry. Scanning the ETFs the following are worth watching:

  • Verizon (VZ) moving past resistance above the October high.
  • Sprint (S) attempting to break above resistance at $5.95… watch for trade opportunity. Failed and sold lower on the week.
  • JDS Uniphase (JDSU) Consolidating and looking to break above resistance at the $15.30 level.
  • CBB (still looking to upside), PLCM (upside break), RVBD (failed testing lower), FTR (moving sideways now) and others attempting to make a move off the recent lows.

Technology¬†– The sector finally made a move above the top side of the trading range. Oops, didn’t hold the move today and testing range again. XLK broke above the $30 level and held. The entry point was hit on XLK and IGV. IGV is holding near the high and need to adjust the stops. Added to the¬†Sector Rotation Model Portfolio.

  • Semiconductors (SOXX) remain in a solid uptrend currently. Testing back on Friday.
  • Internet (FDN) trading sideways and looking to clear $44 level to continue the uptrend.
  • Watch the topping is stocks in the sector. Uptrend has been very flat relative to other leadership.

Financials РBanks have been leading the upside as the stress test is passed. Thursday the Fed approved 14 of the 17 banks for capital changes relative to dividends and share buybacks. Some traded lower on the Fed decision, but the sector bounced back from the early selling. Watching how this plays out going forward.

  • Jim’s Notes – Banks
  • Banks (KBE &KRE) both tested the move higher.
  • Brokers (IAI) testing the February high on the upside.
  • Insurance (KIE) leading the broad sector higher.

Energy РThe sector bounced off the low and is testing the February highs. Despite all the bad implications XLE is making the move higher. Watch how it plays out.

  • Added XLE to the¬†S&P 500 Model Portfolio.
  • Oil Services (IEZ) broke above resistance at $57.50? Watch for opportunity on move higher.
  • Oil Exploration and Production (XOP) broke to new high, tested move on Monday and held.
  • FCG broke higher on the rise in natural gas prices. I like the upside for the commodity and the stocks. Added to Sector Rotation Model and UNG to the ONLY ETF Model.
  • Global Wind Energy (FAN) is attempting to break higher.
  • Solar Energy (TAN) head and shoulder pattern setting up to break lower? Watch.

Basic Materials РMoved back to resistance at the February highs. As seen on the rotation chart above the gains to the upside have accelerated above the other sectors and it is one of the leader of the Feb. 25th low. Watch for the sector to clear resistance and offer some upside opportunity.

  • Added to the¬†S&P 500 Model Watch List.
  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is attempting to break higher from the resistance at $167.60
  • VMC, Vulcan Materials is attempting to break the downtrend and clear the 30 DMA.
  • Plenty of set ups as you scan the ETF for breaks higher. That is a positive for the sector overall.

Consumer Discretionary РBroke above the $51 resistance on XLY hitting the entry point. The consumers are leading the broader market indexes on the race to the top. Extended the upside.

2) Currency:

Sector Watch:

  • Dollar testing the uptrend. The move lower today took some shine off the good news for the buck. UUP closed at support of $22.25. Break is clear exit signal for short term trades. Watch and manage your stops.
  • FXB¬†– the British Pound jumped big on¬†Thursday¬†and held¬†the¬†move Friday. Watch for move above¬†the¬†$150 level
  • FXC¬†– the Canadian Dollar is attempting to hold support at $95.35. Bounced nicely to end the week.
  • FXY¬†– yen is still in bottoming mode. ¬†Watch for a base to build short term if the direction is to switch.
  • FXA¬†– Australian dollar bouncing as stocks continue higher leading the way. Got the break higher Tuesday breaking the downtrend line. Nice gain and follow through on Thursday. — Added to the¬†ONLYETF Watch List.¬†
  • FXE¬†– ¬†The euro is testing support on the downside again?Attempting to build a base at the $128.50 level for now?

3) Fixed Income:

Sector Summary:

  • Yields continue are shifting slightly higher as stocks hold gains. ¬†The question is if the market corrects how much will it impact? Patience as the downside in bonds continues.
  • 30 Year Yield = 3.22% – down 2¬†basis points — ¬†TLT = $115.76 up 54 cents
  • 10 Year Yield =1.99% – down 4 basis points — IEF = $106.30 up 37 cents

Tracking Bond Sectors of Interest:

Treasury Bonds РThe downside pressure on bond prices remains short term. Watch and protect on the downside. Estimates are for 2.75% on the 10 year bond by year end? That is something to watch and play PST on the short side.

High Yield Bonds РHYG = 6.55% yield. Support held at $92.75. Let it run as investors remain in love with junk bonds. I expect the trading range to remain near term.

Corporate Bonds¬†– LQD = 3.8% yield. The price has found short term support ($118.90)… again. If we break lower, being short is the opportunity. Patience as this plays out. holding support on¬†Tuesday.

Municipal Bonds РMUB = 2.8% tax-free yield. The price of the bonds broke the support at $111.30 mark week and the selling continued Monday. The downside risk remains and this is a sector of the bond market to avoid for now.

Convertible Bonds РCWB = 3.6% yield. Price had been moving higher on the current rally in stocks. Hold for the ride and raise your stops.

4) Commodities:

Sector Watch:

  • The commodity sub-sectors are finding some signs of life. Watch and play the leadership. GSG attempting to build a base on the parts moving. Closed above the 200 day moving average as a positive sign.
  • UNG (natural gas) made the big move higher breaking out and following through on the upside this week. The trade entry point was hit. SEE¬†ONLYETF Model Portfolio
  • PALL – Accelerated higher, established a new high, and is testing the move currently. Some consolidation?
  • Crude tested support at $89.30 last week and closed at $92.45 for the week.¬†ONLYETF Model Portfolio¬†The upside is still in play and ready to test¬†the¬†$22 resistance on OIL.
  • GLD – Gold bounce early, but faded again today… downside is still the outlook with a potential short term bounce.
  • TWO EGG MODEL TRADE POSTED ON GOLD

Commodities Rotation Chart:

Commodity

Tracking Commodities Sectors of Interest:

  • BAL¬†– A trading range of $52.80-54.40 is in play. Cleared resistance at the upper end of the range at $54.40 and continues to move higher. Let it run and keep your stops at $54.50 or¬†break-even. gained 4.5% on Thursday and Friday to close the week higher!

5) Global Markets:

Sector Watch:

  • Global markets overall tested the moves higher with some upside breakouts. Europe led the upside move and is attempting to take some positive from the US markets. That set the tone for the sector and we continue to watch for the leadership to rise from the ashes.
  • FXI¬†– China’s bounced didn’t last as the data continues to disappoint investors. FXP is the play for a downside trade on the move currently. Watch to see if it bounces with the balance of the global index.
  • IEV – Europe bounced and held the last few days and we will watch to see if it produces any trade opportunities. Still looking for some positive momentum to lead the indexes higher. $40.50 resistance and $38.90 support.
  • Japan (EWJ) broke higher, tested, and continued to move higher. Got the move above $10.20 and still moving to the¬†upside. Watch the top at $10.55 level. Broke higher to end the week watch as this starts the next leg up.
  • Australia (EWA) making a move higher the last week as well. Uptrend accelerating.
  • EFA¬†– The long term uptrend remains in play and support has held and the fund has moved back to resistance at the $59.30 level. Thursday the sector broke through the high and look for some follow through. Watch and trade accordingly if it breaks to new high short term.
  • EEM¬†– emerging markets continue to struggle. My view they don’t get better until the commodities flatten out or increase in price near term.

6) Real Estate (REITS):

Tracking Real Estate Sectors of Interest:

Real Estate Index (REITS) РThe pullback test is in play for IYR and $67.25 support held. The break higher above $68.50 was positive for the continuation of the uptrend.  Followed through on the upside. ADDED: Sector Rotation Model & S&P 500 Model.

Sector Summary:

  • Homebuilders bounced off support at $27. Watch to see if the upside remains after disappointing news in the housing sector. Housing remains in an uptrend despite the rumors. XHB broke to new closing high.
  • REM – Mortgage REIT held $14.80 support. At the $15.23 resistance to move higher currently.¬†heading higher again in the uptrend.
  • NLY- Annaly Capital Management finally broke above $15, and is testing¬†the¬†$15.20 support currently on the upside move.
  • RWT – solid break higher in the uptrend. Scanning the ETF shows strong leadership in the top half of the holdings. Hold and see how this plays out short term.

7) Global Fixed Income:

Sector Summary:

  • The sovereign debt issues had faded, but with Spain in the news again, Italy facing disruptive elections this weekend, and France taxing itself out of existence, too many concerns and the safest play is to avoid the asset class for now.
  • Some basing is starting to take place and we continue to scan and look for opportunities in the sector.

Watch and play according to your risk tolerance on any position taken. Everyone has different trading styles and you have to find what works for you and your personality. Don’t put yourself in positions you don’t understand or take risk you can’t tolerate. Not every trade results in a profit, but controlling your risk will limit the downside losses.