More worries about the stimulus cuts and the Fed. I can just write this until the meeting concludes next Wednesday. The clarity from the Fed has been excellent on this topic, in fact, not one Wall Street firm agrees with another on if they will cut or when they will do so, now that’s transparency. The indexes remain in their present uptrend despite the selling this week. My focus remains to take it one day at a time. We will focus on the short term trend and take what the market gives. If you have specific questions on any posts please forward them directly to Jim@JimsNotes.com.
Sectors to Watch:
- S&P 500 index held below the 1800 level and showed higher volume again on the selling Thursday. Can it hold support at 1775 mark or does it move lower? The fear factor is in play and will determine the near term outcome. Is this a short set up for the index? Technically, yes. How much downside is the primary question and the risk of the trade is worth evaluating. Watching SDS at $32.20 entry.
- NASDAQ remains in the uptrend, but moved below 4000 opens on modest selling Thursday. The FOMC meeting could be the catalyst regardless of the amount if the speculation continues to grow. The short and long term trend is up, but the micro term selling could accelerate for a trade and we have to watch how it plays out.
- Small Caps (IWM) were modestly positive and held the 50 DMA barely on Thursday. A break of the this level would be an exit signal for any short term (3-9 months) positions. Downside Leadership by the small caps is a big negative from my view heading into year end and the new year.
- Semiconductors (SOXX) continued lower falling 0.8% Thursday and back into the previous trading range, negating the previous move higher. Uptrend is still in play short term, but adjust your stops and protect the against the rising fear factor.
- Financials (XLF) gave up their gains as well moving back to $21.1o support. The regulations being put in place aren’t helping either and we are near our stops on current positions. The approval on Tuesday of the new Volker rules hasn’t helped the outlook. Sentiment in the sector is shifting… again.
- Healthcare (XLV) fell to support quickly following the small caps. The influence of the biotech stocks is being felt in the sector. The break of near term support would be the exit signal from short term trades. The bigger question for the sector will be what happens with the Affordable Care Act. With another year delay of the disaster called “affordable care”, I don’t expect much near term.
- Retail (XRT) was attempting to hold $86.10 support, but despite better than expected retail sales for November, the sector continues to decline. It is now near the 50 DMA and looking for support. Speculation is again in the headlines. Hit our stops in the sector and now looking for support or short entry level.
- Crude oil (OIL) – Another sector where speculation is driving price. The retraction of Tuesday’s gains came on the Fed worries. If the speculation is shifting now is the time to worry about the short term bounce that just took place in crude. Watch to see how it reacts or follows as it seems to be content to trade sideways. more downside is a negative. Manage your downside stops on positions.
The models are updated and with our short term view dominating the process currently. This week continue to focus on and speculate about the FOMC meeting next week. The news has put stocks in a tug-o-war of the cut versus no cuts in stimulus crowds. On Wednesday the cut side got the upper hand and the selling in the broad markets was the result. This triggered some stops and brought others close. My focus remains watching the news/events as they unfold and the reaction from investors, then take what the market offers. The break of support on some key sector (see above) is showing exit for trade positions, and warnings on longer term holdings. The pattern list is where we are posting most trades short term as a result of the current market environment. Technical trades and avoidance of speculation on news. We were looking for the upside to continue as we move forward and any pullbacks as potential trade setups. I am still looking in that direction, but with the action on Wednesday we may add a couple of short trades on the break of support. Manage the risk on trades more aggressively and monitor your longer term holdings with trailing stops to account for any rise in volatility.
Pattern Setups For Today:
- Short setups for today if the selling follows through and breaks first level support. Watch, be patient and don’t force the trades. Futures are basically flat as I post this today and we may have a do nothing day as we move towards the FOMC meeting next week.
- SDS – Bottom reversal. The downside trade setup for the S&P 500 index is worth watching here. Entry $32.20.
- DOG – Entry $25.45. Bottom reversal. The Dow is leading the selling short term and the trade set up is in play.
- SKF – Entry $19. Bottom reversal. The financials are showing weakness and leading on downside.
- Follow up on previous trades or posts:
- BRCM – Breakout from Trading Range. Entry$28.20 on test of the move. Watch for the test and follow through. Be patient. Got the entry on the breakout test Thursday. Stop $27.50.
- LNKD – breaking from the trading range. Entry $235.10. The trade is on the move back to the previous high. Regaining some momentum. Stop $226.90.
- FB – Trend reversal test. Entry $48.70. Follow through on the reversal and move above $47.40. Stop $49.40. Nice move higher on trade of being added to the S&P 500 index.
- GMCR – Trend reversal test and follow through. Entry $71.50. Move to $77 as follow through. Defensive sector. Stop $71.50. inching way higher, raised stop. HIT STOP
- DIA – Entry $159.50. Test of the uptrend. If bounce take the entry, but could test lower to the $158 support. Stop $158. HIT STOP
- HBAN – Breakout from trading range. Entry $9.13. Not much test, but steady trading. If no test, max entry is 9.20. Be patient with the upside as this the stock has a pattern of breaking higher, run and then consolidate. Stop $9.15.
- TSRO – Trading range break. Entry $38.40. Biotech sector moving higher short term. Technical trade entry. Stop 37.50. Watch for some resistance at $40.70.
- LINE – entry $29.40. Test of the break higher. Holding support at the breakout $28.80. If we hit the entry looking f or at trade back to the 200 DMA. Stop $29.40.
- PSX – 65.70 entry. Flag breakout. Consolidation after break higher. Refiners are leading in energy sector. Lower oil prices help margins, etc. Patience and expect volatility. Stop $69.50 Nice break higher as gasoline prices start to rise. Allow for some volatility with price moving.
- CAG – bottom reversal. Cleared the 50 DMA and completing a cup pattern off the bottom. Entry $31.90. Stop $32.25. STOP HIT
NOTE: The pattern trades above are setups that I see for a potential swing trade or short term trade opportunities. Some will fail to follow through on the pattern, some will break and trade according to the pattern. The key is to use discipline in the trades. Entry, Exit and Target on all trades is vital. I am posting these as opportunities that I see when doing scans daily. You can use them as a teaching tool or you can trade them, either way please use discipline. The best way to treat these as a learning tool is to assume a $100,000 portfolio and each positions receives a 5% allocation. If we state to take a 1/2 position as an example you would only allocate 2.5% to that position. I would use a downside risk of $500 per trade as a maximum loss. That will help you learn position sizing and risk management. All investing comes with risk. Our job as investors is to manage the risk. Keep your focus and discipline in place.
Facebook (FB) Update:
- 11/25 – Still sitting on support and we remain in the same strategy as above. We will decide in the next two weeks how to treat our options based on the movement. Patience for now.
- 11/27 – With the break of support on Monday we will look to exercise our options on the stock we currently hold in December and that will give us zero shares and a nice profit in the position. The initial break lower on Tuesday was interesting, but some buying followed to push back above the support at$45.50. Micro downtrend still in play without some buying to reverse.
- 12/2 – Got a reversal and looking to exit the put contracts and hold the stock. Sold @ $6 on stop.
- 12/5 – Watching to see how the stock follows through on the rumor mill of being added to the S&P 500 index. Expect a test or pullback after the news settles. I am looking at the put contracts out to the March/April timeline again if we don’t hold support.
- 12/9 – Mixed trading day on Friday that ended lower. The reversal is being driven by the sector and the S&P 500 addition. Looking for a potential move back to the previous high. Added position (See Above Pattern Trades) and we will manage it accordingly. This is a trade position only.
- 12/13 – nice follow through on upside… watch as this is news drive move. Raise your stops accordingly. See Above in the pattern trades for details.