Small Give Back with Upside Bias

Thursday – Notes & Research

S&P 500 index breaks its string and closes lower by 6 points on the day. Of course the headlines are full of comments about the downside? I lover the fair weather fans. What changed today that wasn’t true the other 12 up days? According to some analyst the negative sentiment shift came from worries that the jobless claims are so good the Fed will start to withdraw stimulus on improving jobs data. So the good jobs report last Friday wasn’t a worry, but a reduction in the weekly jobless claims is a concern….? Okay, got it.

As I stated yesterday this is getting to be interesting when you look at the inter workings of the market each day. Today VIX was higher as some of the sectors continue to struggle. Sever were lower and three higher on the day. That beats the five and five from Wednesday. This could get interesting tomorrow.

A small negative on the day doesn’t change the dynamics of this market currently. Watch and be mindful of what is taking place. Hopefully with some understanding of the cause.

Friday could get interesting with the absence of news to trade on you would think flat day. However, the seed has been planted for some more selling. Watch the futures and sentiment heading into the trading day.

Sector Moves of Note:

  1. S&P 500 index moved to 1626 and we reload to play again tomorrow. As we stated yesterday the close is above the trendline by 4%. That puts the close at the top of the up trending channel off the November low. Still overvalued and watching for test or pullback short term.
  2. NASDAQ 100 index was lower as well on the day down 7 points. No big changes to the index, but the leadership is shifting, but not enough to make me shift out of the index. Watch the topping formation in some of the previous leaders short term.
  3. Gold was up! Gold was down! Gold was up! Gold was down! No clarity to direction for now and we continue watch and see how this is going to play out near term.
  4. Oil was lower on the Fed concerns as well? At least that is what I read. Still consolidating near the high and resistance. Watch and be patient, still like the downside.
  5. Utilities sold lower and broke support on the day down another 1%. Traded right to the next support at $39.65. Broke the uptrend line as well on the day. Watch to see how this plays out tomorrow.
  6. Financials tested the jump higher down 0.7% today. Watch to see how it unfolds tomorrow.
  7. Bonds continue to struggle after big move higher in response to the Fed worries, but this sold off in the afternoon to close lower as yield moved higher.

The market continues to grind it out each day. The question is where the buyers lose faith in the upside run and allow the sellers to dominate the trend for awhile. Take it one day at a time and remain disciplined with your stops.

Economic Data:

Jobless claims were better than expected and evidently that is now a bad thing and unsettled investors. Wholesale inventories were better than expected, but still didn’t show signs of ¬†robust economy. Tomorrow is the Federal Budget ūüôā What is that? Spend as much as you want?

Economic Events & Calendar 

1) US Equities:

The broad indexes hold the move higher from Friday and the upside remains in play.

The April 18th chart below is the last low in the test off the April 11th high. Leaders are materials, technology, energy and financials off this pivot point. Consumer services and industrials are adding to the upside as well. The laggards are consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. The defensive stocks are selling as money rotates to the hotter sectors currently.

Scatter 418

Sector Rotation Strategy: 

The February 25th low pivot point remains in play relative to the trend. However, the volatility of the sideways trading is showing in the chart starting on April 11th, thus the chart above. Uptrend still in play, but the continued test leave plenty to worry about.

Scatter 225

December 28th Pivot Point for uptrend following the Fiscal Cliff pullback chart below. The trend has continued to push higher. The trend remains higher, but the short term volatility is picking up. Watch the downside risk and protect your gains appropriately.

Scatter1228

November 15th Pivot Point is the start of the current uptrend. Target 1550-1575 was attained and now there is pressure to test the move. The trend has overcome two attempted moves lower to maintain the uptrend. Watch the trendline as the support on the current pullback. A break of the uptrend brings downside options back into play for the short term.

SP500Scatter

Sector Rotation of Interest:

Technology (XLK) –¬†Break above the $30 level again was the entry point and it has followed through nicely on the upside. Getting extended and we need to protect the downside.¬†Target¬†remains $31.65. Close to hitting the target on the move higher.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Рthe downside relative to earnings and warnings from the big cap stocks is and remains a concern. Even with the solid gains on the week for broad index, the sector struggled. Keep your stop tight and watch how the trend plays out next week. $40.75 is the short term perspective stop.

Healthcare (XLV) Рthe biotech and pharmaceuticals stall from earnings are weighing on the sector. $46.80 support level held and solid bounce, but still showing some weakness. Protecting the gain is the priority. Keep stops at the $46.80 mark and let it go for now.

Energy (XLE) РMoved back above the $78.25 level, but still has to conquer the $80 mark. All positive for now, but watching the downside risk. The price of crude helping the push higher.

Telecom (IYZ) РMoving higher, but consolidating near the high. Still like the uptrend here and if we can move above the $26.90 level it would be a big positive for the sector going forward. Got the move higher on Wednesday and the upside remains intact. $26.10 remains the exit point. Reversed the move on Thursday selling.

2) Currency:

Since the high on March 27th the dollar has essentially moved sideways to down. Starting April 23rd the dollar steadily declined until bouncing on May 1st. The chart below shows the path of the dollar almost sideways.

Thursday: Dollar (UUP) bounced 1%, Yen (FXY) fell again hitting new low off 1.6%, Aussie dollar (FXA) is moving lower on rate cut and The Swiss Franc (FXF) fell 1.3% to add to the downside pressure.

Currency

Sector Watch:

  • UUP¬†– ¬†The dollar remains sideways and the balance of the currency market has accomplished¬†essentially¬†the same.

3) Fixed Income:

Sector Summary:

  • 30 Year Yield = 2.99% – up 2 basis points — ¬†TLT = $120..04 down 31 cents
  • 10 Year Yield = 1.81% – ¬†up 5 basis points — IEF = $107.94 down 2 cents

Tracking Bond Sectors of Interest:

Treasury Bonds¬†–¬†Yields on the 30 year Treasury¬†was falling again as money rotated towards the bonds. There are concerns, but also money flow into the US Treasury bonds from the international markets looking for safety and yields. Watch as this continues to be a leading indicator for equities. Last few days have put some pressure on bonds with yields rising and prices declining.

High Yield Bonds РHYG = 6.5% yield. Support remains at $92.75. Move back above the previous highs at the $95 level. Manage the position for the dividend as the growth side is uncertain short term. Use $92.75 as the stop ($95.20 short term trades). The risk is rising with each step the fund takes.

Corporate Bonds РLQD = 3.6% yield.  Bonds have dumped with the rise in rates short term. Hold with stop at $120.80.

Municipal Bonds РMUB = 2.8% tax-free yield. Moving back in an uptrend ever so gradually. Collect your dividends and let it ride for now. Still climbing steadily.

Convertible Bonds РCWB = 3.6% yield. Price had been moving higher on the rally in stocks. Broke to a new high and steady as she goes. Keep and practice dividend collection.

4) Commodities –¬†Sector Summary:

  • Commodity Index¬†(DBC) – Moved back to resistance at $26.50. Need a break higher to play the sector overall.
  • Natural Gas¬†– (UNG) posted a big loss last week and still no bounce. $21.17 support. No play currently. Watching for support to catch.
  • Crude Oil¬†– (OIL) Crude moved up on speculation of improving economy? Yes, that is called speculation. Watching the downside opportunity on the move. Some clarity is still the call.
  • Gold –¬†(GLD) Fill the gap was the plan and it is¬†still working on the plan. Downside is where I am looking with GLL. Willing to wait and let the play develop for now. Bounced back on Wednesday, watch for clarity in the move, higher or lower.
  • Gasoline¬†– (UGA) Resistance is at $56.80 now. Watch to see if it can follow through on the upside move.

Commodities Rotation Chart:

I have moved the starting point forward on the chart. DBC has moved sideways since April 15th start point. 1) UNG Рdumped lower the last week. and continues to look for support.  Watch $21.25 support? maybe a short setup  2)  DBB accelerated off the low? $17.25 entry level for trade.  3)  JJC Рcopper jumped on positive economic data. 4)  OIL -jumped on economic data. 5)  UGA РGasoline moved with oil finally? This is getting interesting for some short term trades posted above.

Commodity

DBC –¬†PowerShares Commodity Index ETF¬†(click to view) Composite of 14 commodities tracking index.

5) Global Markets:  

Global markets are trading in tandem with the US. No reason to be moving higher, but content to do so. China, Europe and Russia have taken on the leadership since the 18th of April. The test continues with the global markets. Still no clear defined leadership on the chart. EFA has been the best buy relative to the developed markets.

Global Mkt

EFA –¬†iShares EAFE Index ETF¬†(click to view) 10 Developed Countries making up Europe (66.6%), Australia (8.9%)¬†and Far East (24.5%). (Weighting of fund) Not most balanced, but give indication of global markets.

Country Watch:

  • Most of the country charts are starting to group together. They are tracking along with the US markets of late. EFA is a good barometer for trading the developed markets and VWO for the emerging markets.

6) Real Estate (REITS):

Real Estate Index (REITS) РThe sector continues in the uptrend overall. My rating is a HOLD currently. Watch the 1% decline today as it may start a pullback in the sector near term.

Sector Summary:

  • IYR – Support is $70.50 and our stop is at the same level. Still moving up gradually and we continue to hold and collect our dividend as well.
  • This weeks scan of IYR has turned up… 1)¬† JOE – building a base and looks ready to break the downtrend. 2)¬† FCH – trading range near the high. Look for continuation of the uptrend. 3)¬† JLL – sideways consolidation with resistance at $100. 4)¬† RYN – consolidation near the high move above $59.75.¬†5)¬† VNO – consolidation near the high $88 breakout level. 6)¬† BMR – consolidation near the high $22.70 breakout above resistance.
  • REM – Mortgage REIT continue to struggle.¬†The downside remains a concern and we continue to look for the opportunities, but not interested currently in owning the sector.
  • RWO –¬†SPDR Global Real Estate ETF¬†is in a positive uptrend and hit a new high. Manage your stops accordingly.
  • MDIV –¬†First Trust Multi- Asset Income ETF¬†is a good alternative to picking through all the choices of income funds. This multi-assets income fund pays a 5% dividend.

7) Global Fixed Income:

Sector Summary: Making another move to the upside short term.

  • There are some funds moving in favorable direction of late.
  • PAFCX – Bounced off low with the movement in yields going lower. Holds $11.60 worth owning short term. The bounce remains in an uptrend and the dividend is the play.
  • PICB – hit support traded sideways and broke higher. Entry $28.95 + 3.1% dividend. The upside previous high is now in play. Watch and adjust your stop to $29.15
  • EMB – Big recovery and interesting in watching. 4.3% dividend yield. Entry $120.25. Breaking higher following the consolidation adjust your stop to $120.50 and go forward collecting the dividend.
  • PCY – Big recovery as well off the low for short term play. Entry $30.60. 4.8% dividend yield. Breaking higher as well. Raise stop to $30.70 and collect the dividend.

Watch and play according to your risk tolerance on any position taken. Everyone has different trading styles and you have to find what works for you and your personality. Don’t put yourself in positions you don’t understand or take risk you can’t tolerate. Not every trade results in a profit, but controlling your risk will limit the downside losses.