The SOXX index rose 3.5% to lead the day, but the balance of the indices continue to consolidate. There were no big moves and news offered no chart altering events. It was a good day to relax and enjoy the view. Pot stocks reversed on profit-taking… well off their highs… Stops were hit and solid gains were banked. We are headed into a three-day weekend with Presidents Day on Monday and I would expect a mild exit into the weekend.
Short news notes of interest…
- The White House stated it was looking at travel restrictions for Florida amid a rise in ‘new’ variant in the virus. That didn’t settle with the governor as the division on how to deal with the virus remains a heated topic. Governor DeSantis had plenty to say to the White House. The case counts peaked in January near 20,000 cases per day and have since declined to an average of 7,700 cases per day… confusing for me as the numbers are falling.
- Semiconductor chip surged on Thursday after GM and others announced production impact due to the shortage of available chips. The upside was the lone positive in the markets on the day.
- Bitcoin moves to record highs as Tesla offers to take the coin for cars. Then Mastercard and Chase chimed in and will start working with Bitcoin as well. Maybe it will last longer than the high for the pot stocks.
- $15 minimum wage from the Federal Government seems to be on its way as part of the $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package. My question is if you raise wages what happens to the price of goods? One key ingredient in the inflation calculations every month is wage inflation… Not against people making more money, but at the end of the day, those prices will be passed along in the increased price of goods. Thus, do the increased wages translate into an increased lifestyle?
- Initial jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 793,000 for the week. Continuing claims decreased by 145,000 to 4.545 million the prior week. The report was basically unchanged as the labor market remains in a challenging place.
Sector Rotation and the S&P 500 Index:
The S&P 500 index closed up 6.5 points to 3916. It was up 0.173% on the day. The index was sluggish on the day and closed with a doji candle. We remain near the highs as the markets take a breather. Three of the eleven sectors closed on the upside as investor sentiment remains positive. The VIX index closed at 21.2 as buyers eased the stress and anxiety of investors. Watching the investor sentiment and how it proceeds of late.
Thursday: Technology return to leadership as the semiconductors led the upside. Healthcare attempted to add to the upside move but was not convincing. Energy continues to play an up and down game near the high with significant volatility intraday. Overall not much changed and we will remain patient and let it unfold.
- XLB – Basic Materials testing lower as money flow declines. $70.80 support held and bounced off the test. Holding from the bottom reversal.
- XLU – Utilities hold support on the test lower and find some buyers. Watching interest rates and the dollar currently. Consolidation pattern.
- IYZ – Telecom moved back below $30.95 support and bounced this week to regain some momentum… watching. Moved back to the previous highs and holding.
- XLP – Consumer Staples moving lower to establish near term downtrend and bounced at support. Watching. Held the bounce from last week.
- XLI – Industrials moving lower and breaks below the support of trading range and bounced. Moved back towards the previous highs and stalled.
- XLE – Energy tested $39.12 support and bounced offering entry. Watching how this unfolds along with the commodities. Entry $41. Stop $42.45 (adjusted). Four days of at least 1% swings up or down to remain near the highs. Money flow is declining? Watching how this unfolds with stop adjusted for the risk.
- XLV – Healthcare tested the uptrend and watching how it treats near term support at $113. Flag pattern on the chart. Triangle consolidation pattern in play on the chart.
- XLK – Technology remains in an uptrend but tested the upside and resumed with some challenges near term. IGV leading the sector and SOXX struggles. Added to the new highs and holding.
- XLF – Financials bounced at the support of $28.95.Solid week but watching the money flow and challenges ahead. Added to the upside move.
- XLY – Consumer Discretionary holds uptrend line and bounced at the 50 DMA. Resumed uptrend and closed at new highs for the week. Moved to new highs and tested.
- IYR – REITs have struggled with interest rates, vacancies, and virus talk about people moving out of cities. Held support at the $82 level and moved back to new highs… Watching. Continued the break higher.
Using the six-month charts as an indicator for the short term view… Seven sectors are in confirmed uptrends with some testing near-term. Four are in consolidation patterns showing indecision from investors, and none are in a downtrend. The result for S&P 500 index is a sideways trend short term with an upside bias currently.
(The notes above are posted at the end of each week based on the activity of the previous week’s trading. The BOLD/ITALIC comments are the current day changes worthy of note.)
KEY INDICATORS/SECTORS & LEADERS TO WATCH:
The NASDAQ index closed up 53.2 points to 14,025. The index was up 0.38% on the day with mixed activity overall. The NASDAQ 100 index (QQQ) was up 0.55% for the day as money flow into the sector was slower. The large caps have been lagging of late and remain a concern. Semiconductors (SOXX) closed up 3.46% after reversing off the near term lows to the upside. Technology (XLK) moved up 1.1% after testing the $128.57 level of support and hit a new high. Watching how this unfolds as investors look for opportunities.
Semiconductors (SOXX) The sector remains in an uptrend with interesting consolidation near the highs. Technology stocks continue to struggle near term as money rotates. Money flow in the sector has been declining since January 21st. Solid gains for the sector to break from the consolidation pattern… Parts are better as the whole to breaks higher and resumes leadership.
Software (IGV) The sector has come back to life after six weeks of consolidation and volatility. Broke to new highs this week and showing solid money flow into the stocks. Entry $361.77. Stop $364 (adjusted). Another new high and holding its leadership.
Biotech (IBB) The sector broke higher after testing support closing the week up 5.4%. The uptrend from the November low remains in play as the sector is a benefactor to the virus. Entry $164.70. Stop $164.70 (adjusted). Social media speculation alive and well in the sector. Testing the highs.
Small-Cap Index (IWM) The sector moved 7.8% for the week as it reverses last week’s selling and moves to new highs. Support is at $204.83. Hit entry at $213.76. Stop $216.19 (adjusted). The uptrend remains in play as we watch how it unfolds moving forward. Added to the upside and holding the highs with small test.
MidCap (IJH) The sector turned higher gaining 6% for the week and reversing last week’s selling. We don’t own anything in the sector but continue to watch for opportunities. Joined the small caps at new highs and holding.
Retail (XRT) The retail sector volatility dropped this week and some normal returned following the GME frenzy. In the last three days, XRT has traded more in line with the previous volume. $79.20 is the level we are watching to clear on the upside. Social media money is still moving sector albeit less and watching for the opportunity in the near term consolidation.
Emerging Markets (EEM) The sector recovered from last week’s selling gaining 5.5%. Uptrend resumed… no positions and watching the previous highs. Back to the previous highs and follows through to new highs on flat money flow. China (FXI) is the leader in the sector.
Transports (IYT) The sector has struggled but found some buyers for the week to rise 5.7% with a head and shoulders pattern on the charts. Watching for a decision on the direction near term. Watching airlines for direction in the sector. The sector is being challenged near term… a key indicator to the future valuation of stocks. Showing solid move higher of late and test.
The Dollar (UUP) The dollar has risen steadily over the last five weeks… Friday dipped lower on the stimulus talks and projections of approval… looking for the dollar to fall if the stimulus is passed as proposed. Watch commodities prices if that unfolds. More downside for the buck? The answer is yes thus far… watching the impact of the lower dollar on other sectors and globally.
The Volatility Index (VIX) Volatility closed 20.8 down from last week’s 33.1 level as buyers returned to the market and anxiety levels subsided. We are back at previous support and watching. Small decrease with flat activity in the market this week.
Treasury Yield 10 Year Bond (TNX) The yield closed the week at 1.17% from the 1.09% last week. Rates are holding above the 1% level and rising again… negative for bonds. TBT hit entry at $17.84. Stop $18 (adjusted). Holding near the highs.
Crude oil (USO) Crude moved to $56.89 from $52.18 for the week or up 9% for the week. Plenty of speculation to influence prices as OPEC cuts to supply start to take effect. As we stated nearly seven months ago… the greatest opportunity was in crude. Taking what is offered and managing the risk. USO Entry $29. Stop $36.60 (adjusted). UCO trade position entry $25.78. Stop $44.50 (adjusted). Higher adding to the upside as the price approaches the $60 level.
Gold (GLD) The commodity is struggling against the background of uncertainty relative to the dollar and inflation. Watching as we test $166.50 support levels. Gold broke lower from the trading range on the stronger dollar… Friday the dollar fell on stimulus noise… gold rose… worthy of attention in the coming week. Jumped back to the previous support at $172 and watching. We add positions in the metal. Tested the move on Thursday.
(The notes above are posted every weekend and updated daily in Bold Print)
DAILY SCANS FOR OPPORTUNITIES AND RISK MANAGEMENTT
THURSDAY’s Scans for February 11th: Another day of little change as the semiconductors pushed higher to lead and energy was lower… but the balance seemed to trade in place. The pot stocks were off more than 20% on the day as traders took their gains. Worth watching how that unfolds. Taking one day at a time with patience.
- Semiconductors (SOXX/SOXL) breaks to new highs confirming the bottom reversal. Adjusting the stop and letting this unfold. WDC, NVDA moved up as well and adjusted the stop.
- China (FXI/YINN) jumped higher and adjusted the stop.
- Emerging Markets (EEM/EDC) moved higher and adjusted the stop.
- Homebuilders (ITB/NAIL) moved higher and breaking on the upside… adjusted the stop.
- Internet (WEBL) jumped higher again and raised the stop. KWEB was up again as well and adjusted the stops.
WEDNESDAY’s Scans for February 10th: Mixed day for stocks with little to no shift in leadership or direction. The upside remains with buyers stepping in again on modest selling early. We will hold and manage the risk that is looking for more opportunities up or down.
- Energy (XLE/ERX ) remains the leader for the broad indexes.
- Cannabis (POTX) jumped 20.1% on the day to follow the 17.2% gain on Tuesday… raised the stop and watching.
- Natural Gas (UNG) struggling but keeping the upside move in play. Being patient and letting it unfold.
- Social Media (SOCL) jumped 3% on the day and extending the upside move… raised stop.
- China Internet (KWEB) jumped 2.2% to add the extended upside move. Raised the stop.
TUESDAY’s Scans for February 9th: Some are pointing to the rise in sentiment as too positive of late and are calling for a correction… That is simply an opinion and one that may very well prove to be right… however, we cannot assume anything in this market. Our focus has to be the facts we can have beliefs, but the market must validate those beliefs on the charts. We continue to take what is offered in the moves and maintain our stops. Tuesday was a consolidation day as money flow was slower and less directive. Patience as this unfolds.
- Dollar (UUP/UDN) the dollar has been moving lower on the stimulus package pushing forward. Remember a lower dollar influences crude, gold, and other commodities… watching how that unfolds.
- Small Caps (IWM) makes it seven days on the upside and pushes new highs… raised the stop.
- Cannabis (POTX) up 17.2% on the day… stop raised.
- China (FXI/YINN) moving off the test low and cleared $27.50 (YINN) offering a second entry point. Watching and managing the risk of the reversal trade.
- Regional Banks (KRE/DPST) breaking higher after the test. This is a sector we have favored since December. It has come with some volatility and management issues but looking for the upside to continue.
MONDAY’s Scans for February 8th: Markets continued higher as the leadership from energy and financials remains in place. Technology has been helping, but semiconductors have been a strain. Software has picked up the slack with solid gains. Investors continue to focus on valuations while speculators continue to push stocks higher. The goal remains to take what the market offers and manage the risk accordingly. Plenty to like, plenty to understand, and plenty of risk for all.
- Crude Oil (USO/UCO) upside continues with a gain of 2% on the day. EIA reported November saw a rise of 692,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.124 mmbd. That is the highest since March. Watching how production unfolds in light of expected demand rising.
- Energy (XLE) moved to new highs as the money chases the stocks following the rise in oil prices. Other benefactors are XOP, OIH, IEO and others.
- Gold (GLD) bounced off the lows and back to the previous support levels offering an opportunity in the metal. The key is to let this unfold and be patient as the bounce plays out.
- Biotech (IBB/LABU) Big jump higher to start the week as social media takes on the sector and short selling. We own the sector and much like XRT we will manage the risk based on the charts and not the news.
- Homebuilders (ITB/NAIL) breaking to new highs on speculation of more being more. Again, we take what is offered and don’t get into the argument of valuation… statistics don’t lie, only statisticians. After all four out of five dentists choose Crest.
FRIDAY’s Scans for February 5th: Investors were willing to ignore the jobs report thanks to the stimulus talks. Money flow was flat to negative on the day in many sectors. Watching how this moves forward. Is there enough momentum to keep the trend moving higher? There are plenty of issues as we have discussed and they are not resolved yet… thus, we proceed with caution and manage the risk that is.
- Energy (XLE) leading sector for the S&P 500 index gaining 8.2%. Hit entry point at $41. Stop $40.50.
- Transportation (XTN) gained a solid 7.3% for the week and watching to move above the January highs.
- Financials (XLF) up 6.7% for the week and showing positive move off support… the challenge is money flow move sideways to down on the move.
- Homebuilders (ITB/NAIL) solid upside bounce for the week and back to the previous highs… can it break higher and hold as interest rates continue to creep higher?
- Biotech (IBB/LABU) solid upside move on the week as vaccines continue to be the key headline.
(The Scans are done daily and left on the page for one week to allow you to see the progression of the opportunities or warnings.)
THURSDAY: Solid day for the semiconductors as the balance traded in place. Watching how the pot stocks react falling from their highs. Watching money rotate into emerging markets, global markets, and speculation. Risk is high currently, but the sentiment is positive. That is keeping the peace for now. Watching stimulus, virus, and money flow as this all unfolds.
WEDNESDAY: Mixed results with some intraday activity. Overall the markets are resting as we let this all unfold. Some juggling of positions, same leadership of the obscure, some speculation in biotech and cannabis, and overall an uptrend that remains in play. Focus on what is in front of you and manage your risk accordingly.
TUESDAY: Day of rest for the markets overall. The positive buzz around vaccines, lower case numbers, etc. investors remain positive and the sentiment validates the optimism for now… remember this can change with one headline. Take what is offered and manage the risk that is versus the one you imagine.
MONDAY: Great day for the upside moves in many sectors and major indexes. The challenge remains speculation on the upside versus money flow on the charts. Without trying to be negative it is a simple concern and one that is addressed in managing our stops. As seen two weeks ago we did hit plenty of stops and raised our cash positions significantly. However, the bounce last week provided new and renewed opportunities and we added positions. We manage those positions with the same due diligence and address the risk of each daily based on the objective and adjust our stops accordingly. No one knows what lies on the right side of any chart… thus, protect your money in the event what happens isn’t in alignment with your beliefs.
Weekend Wrap & Outlook… The markets shift gears as the sentiment turns positive again with the VIX index dropping back to support at the 20.8 level. The major indexes posted solid gains on the hopes of trillions of dollars to fat the golden calf. We will take what is offered, manage the risk, and avoid the speculation that is. No comments or thoughts on why or how, just using technical data here to trade and make some money on the move. When the markets get emotional I get technical… the only way to stay of the illogical arguments about valuations and hope. The long-term trends remain on the upside following the test of momentum. For the week all eleven sectors closed in positive territory showing the impact of sentiment on stocks. The VIX index closed at 20.8 down from 33 last week. An interesting time for the markets. The dollar has been strong, but with the talk of stimulus on Friday, it moved lower… watching the commodities on the move. Crude moved higher hitting the $56 level the highest since February 2020. UGA moved higher with prices at the pump elevated. Watching the current movement in the broad markets as money continues to rotate and money flow shifts. The goal remains to manage money not the markets or the pundits in the media. Let the future unfold and manage the risk that is. Track the data. Know where the markets stand relative to the facts. Money rotates to where it will be treated the best. Watch the trend, know which side the Fed is on daily, and ultimately the data will establish the longer-term trend. We remain focused on what is working and what is failing. Therein lies the opportunities.
“Vision without action is a daydream… Action without vision is a nightmare.” Japanese proverb
The goal of these notes is to allow you, the investor, to learn how to see the market development as the progression through the sector develop based on news, speculation, and data. Data drives long-term results and develops trends… speculation and news are short-term drivers and offer higher risk trading opportunities. Through the use of both technical and fundamental data, we can have greater confidence in your trading strategies with a disciplined approach to investing and managing the risk of our money.