OUTLOOK: May 10th
The markets manage a second day of moving higher. Utilities, telecom, and technology lead the index with all eleven sectors ending the day positive. Volume was above average and the leaders continued to lead with some help from the laggards on Thursday. The positive move in software, semiconductors, retail, drugs, healthcare, oil and even China are helping the charts take on a positive look near term. Some of the worries nagging the market are unfolding with North Korea, global trade, and even the White House are settling with clarity beginning to unfold. In all it has been a positive week with the last day of trading still to go.
The S&P 500 index closed up 25.2 points at 2723 and moved above the April high to complete a double bottom. While this doesn’t seem like much it is the first real attempt at a trend reversal since the decline in January. The follow through to the bounce starting five days ago is a positive for the broad markets and the last two days have been on above-average volume. The chart is holding the long-term trendlines off the January/February 2016 low. Patience is key as the move above 2713 is a good start.
The NASDAQ index cleared 7297 resistance level Wednesday and closed at 7404 on Thursday. The SOXX continued to show some leadership moving higher on the day and clearing $181.60 resistance. The last two days have seen the buyers take a swing at the upside. Technology is leading the way for the broad index. Patience is required along with a strategic approach to managing money.
Small Cap index moved higher adding to the move and cleared resistance at the $158 mark. A move above the $161 double top would be nice to see as a clear sign of momentum from the sector. The leadership from the sector is a positive near term for the broad markets. Entry $155. Stop $152.30.
Gold (GLD) bounced off the 200 DMA and Thursday made a positive move off support. This could be the start of a move back towards the top of the trading range. Looking for confirmation of direction and $125.25 entry if follows through. The gold miners (GDX) made the move back above the 200 DMA and looks positive. Entry$21.92. Stop $21.92 (adjusted). Base metals (DBB) reversed the speculation trade on sanctions against Russia… the metals settled back to the 200 DMA and holding… Watching how the base unfolds near term.
The dollar (UUP) bounced and cleared resistance at the $23.65 level and pushed back above the 200 DMA. The move above $24.35 on Tuesday clears resistance near term and puts $24.75 in sight. Watching the test on Thursday near the highs. The move higher is a positive from my perspective, but there are many who think a weak dollar helps US companies. Simply not true… the rise in interest rates is the cause of the rise in the buck for now. Took the upside trade near term as the move above $23.75 was the entry point for UUP. Stop $24.20 (adjusted).
Crude oil (USO) made a move higher to $71.36 breaking from the small trading range near the highs of $69… why the move higher? OPEC has agreed to extend the curtailed production and the proposed sanctions on Iran are impacting price on speculation. Crude could move up $10 a barrel or more according to the analyst, it is already up nearly $8 since the Iran nuclear issue started. Estimates are as much as 1 million barrels a day would disappear from supply… that speculation has driven the price higher. The uncertainty remains around the inventories, production, global discord, and the dollar. UCO entry $26.05, stop at $29.60 (adjusted).
Emerging Markets (EEM) dumped lower breaking $47.90 support and testing the short side. It did manage to hold above the $45.50 support and Thursday gapped above the 200 DMA. The trend is still on the downside, the move has my attention for upside if it follows through. The dollar, tariffs, trade wars, and interest rates are all playing into the volatility of the sector. We will let the market speak and we will decide what trend to trade. Watching $47.50 resistance and entry level.
The Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 13.2 as investors worry remain steady. The bounce on Wednesday and Thursday was a positive sign for stocks and the index reflects the ease of worries by investors… just one more sign pointing to the upside on the day.
(The notes above are posted daily based on the activity of the previous days trading)
KEY INDICATORS/SECTORS & LEADERS TO WATCH:
Biotech (IBB) remains a sector of speculation… The sector has taken on an emotional ride of ups and downs based on the current belief and market volatility. Testing the support levels again and looking for some leadership… failed to develop to this point… watching and waiting for now. Another bottom reversal attempt by the sector? Failed to hold the move higher intraday Thursday, but still attempting the reversal.
Semiconductors (SOXX) Bottoming pattern in play as the sector tested the 200 DMA. Bounced Thursday and moved higher on Friday to break from the bottoming range. Needs to follow through on the upside as this sector is key to the broader index… $176.45 level to clear. Nice addition to the bounce last week and watching for some leadership. $177.50 entry on Tuesday. Stop $172. Cleared $181.60 resistance Thursday and showing some leadership.
Software (IGV) bounced off the near term low and test at $171.11 support. A nice move higher clearing the $179 resistance level. Holding the uptrend with some volatility of late. Adding to the upside bounce and cleared the March highs on the move to resume leadership. Entry $176. Stop $177.50. added to the upside Thursday.
REITs (IYR) The sector made a break from the trading range Friday clearing $76.22. Interest rates have been the challenge overall… I have been looking for the opportunity to add a position and collect the dividend long term. Added on the move back above $75 and followed through. Entry $75.50. Stop $72. Nice follow through upside would be great. Testing and moved higher as interest rates ease on Thrusday.
Treasury Yield 10 Year Bond (TNX) moved to 3.02% and faded the last seven days to close at 2.94 failing to hold the move above the 3% mark. The move pushed rates to their highest levels since February, but the retreat isn’t helping the call for higher rates and worries about an inverted yield curve. Still looking for higher rates to be the trend going forward. 3.04% on Wednesday and 2.97% on Thursday… uncertainty remains in the bond.
Energy stocks (XLE) Cleared $68.82 on the upside to break from the current trading range. The move in crude gave cause for the buying. Held the move and establish an uptrend currently in the sector. Entry $70, Stop $71.50 (adjusted). Flag pattern in play with an attempt to move higher for the continuation of the uptrend. The early gap higher on the day held with prices moving higher as Trump removes the US from the Iran nuclear agreement. Upside in crude will impact the stocks longer term.
Natural Gas (UNG) forming a bottoming pattern currently after falling more than 19% off the January highs… watch for the next opportunity in the commodity. Bounced back to the top of the range and gaining some momentum. Failed to hold the move above $22.91 selling lower again… still watching as the commodity remains in the trading range. Back to the bottom end of the range… needs a catalyst. Big move back to the top of the range and the outlook remains positive for natural gas.
(The notes above are posted on the weekend and updates are added in red daily as they change or develop.)
Daily Scan Results:
THURSDAY’s Scans 5/10: With all eleven sectors positive the scans are positive. The leadership is evolving slowly and the move this week has been on the plus side. Still, a trading environment until the charts prove otherwise. The trend reversal is in play with the move above the April highs and watching how it unfolds.
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQ/TQQQ) holds the move above April high and adds to the upside. Entry $160. Stop $159. (adjusted)
- S&P 500 (SPY/SPXL) moves above the April high and break from the consolidation pattern… looking for further confirmation on the move and trade. Entry $43. Stop $42.
- Small Caps (IWM/TNA) upside continues with positive volume. The leadership from the sector is a plus and looking for a move above the January and March highs. Entry $75. Stop$69.40.
- Utilities (XLU) bounced off support at $49.50 to maintain the uptrend. Holding our position and collecting the dividend for now.
- REITs (IYR) cleared resistance the $76.22 level and adding to the upside as the money flow returns and the worries abate. Holding our positions and collecting the dividend.
Leadership remains with XLK, SOXX, XLE, XLF, and XLY. Added some upside with FXI, EEM, and IEV.
Patterns are breaking through resistance and showing upside opportunity. Follow through is the key… markets shift trends slowly and you have to take trades with the short term in mind and an eye on the longer term developing. Manage the risk as this all unfolds for now.
WEDNESDAY’s Scans 5/9: Buyers showed up and stayed. The positive moves were hopeful technically on the charts as the move was accompanied by volume on the day. Looking for a follow through and a reversal of the downtrend from the February highs. It is a lot to ask for, but if we are going to make a move there has to be some conviction in the process. Everything is a process and we will take it one day at a time.
- Semiconductors (SOXX/SOXL) Nice upside follow through and looking for the leadership to continue. Watching MU, AMD, MKSI, and NVDA.
- Software (IGV) nice bounce higher to close above the March highs… nice leadership.
- SKYY, HACK, TECL and others moving higher. GOOG nice move clearing $1057 entry.
- Commodities continue higher as well with Crude (UCO) adding to the upside. Agriculture (DBA) testing the upside jump of late.
- Energy (XLE/ERY) gapped higher and held the move. Watching how the speculation in crude unfolds along with the stocks near term. Adjusted our stop on the move.
- Financials (XLF/FAS) moved above the resistance short term to show some signs of life again.
- Small Caps (IWM/TNA) nice follow through and move above resistance. Watching microcaps (IWC) and midcaps (MYY) as well on this upside leadership.
Positive day with some leadership returning along with hope. The key is always follow through and we are at the next point of looking for some upside momentum. The crude issues will be on my radar as a longer term negative should crude move back to $90 a barrel as some suggest.
Taking it one day at a time.
TUESDAY’s Scans 5/8: News was all about the Iran/US issues over the nuclear agreement. There was Disney (DIS) earning beating expectations, the Fed promised to keep hiking interest rates, and more M&A activity… however, at the end of the day stocks were essentially flat on the day. There were some takeaways of interest at the end of the day…
- Small Caps (IWM/TNA) they are holding above the $154.90 support/resistance. They look positive on the upside. Their leadership is a positive near term. Clearing the previous highs would be a win for the broad markets.
- Energy (XLE/ERX) the sector stand to benefit from the Iran sanctions being reinstated on crude. The US companies will come back into the picture as well as the OPEC agreements. A target of $43.50 near term on our positions. IEO and OIH are moving higher as well. UGA adding to the upside… need to invest to offset the cost at the consumer level.
- Dollar (UUP) continues to move higher and helps our position in the buck near term. The short side trade on the euro (EUO) is looking good as well.
- Technology (XLK/TECL) upside follow through is a positive near term. SOCL, HACK, IGN, IGV and others all moving higher as well… need the leadership.
- Treasury Bonds (TLT/TMV) rates have settled in near the 2.95% mark… watching how the bond responds to the Fed talk of hiking rates further…
- Utilities (XLU) fall 2.5% as worries about the rise in yields on Fed talks. Watching as we have positions in the sector.
There is always something and somewhere to invest money… the questions is risk/reward. As the current scenario continues to unfold we will add positions that allow us to control and measure the risk appropriately.
MONDAY’s Scans 5/7: Added to the gains from Friday, but faded later in the day. Volume remains a concern. Breadth. Leadership. The trading is focused on a few stocks and sectors as reflected in the scans. Money is looking for leadership, but not much to be had. Technology stocks are seeing money flow, but even that is limited. Willing to take what is there, but I do so with extreme caution.
- Biotech (IBB/LABU) showed leadership on the day but struggling to bounce off the current lows. Clearing the 200 DMA and $79.06 resistance would be next step.
- Clean Energy (PBD) spiked higher in response to the Iran news. Interesting to watch how this unfolds if the sanctions are not levied. TAN, FAN and other moved higher as well… watching how the storyline unfolds with reality.
- Semiconductors (SOXX) nice follow through to Friday and watching if it holds. Willing to add a position if the upside is more than a bounce.
- Small Caps (IWM/TNA) nice follow through to the Friday bounce. We need leadership and this is a good sector to provide it… watching for the upside breakthrough to add volume and conviction.
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) key leadership if the markets are to head higher. Moved to a key resistance level at $159.10. If we move through this level willing to add a position. Technology is leading the sector higher and digging into that leadership equally will add some interesting trades.
Other moves to watch today… KWEB, IGN, ITA, IAI, FDN, HACK, SOCL, MVV, URE, IHI
Patience as this all unfolds daily.
FRIDAY’s Scans 5/4: Solid upside gain for the broad markets on lower volume. The upside was praised by the talking heads as they pontificated on slower wage inflation being an upside catalyst. One month of data doesn’t change the trend. Thus we will watch how this unfolds going forward and take what the market has to offer. Always willing to let the data validate along with the trend.
- Trend changing moves Friday: SOXX, XLK, QQQ, USO, IYR, IHI… looking for follow through moves on Monday and more to follow the lead.
- Moves of interest on Friday: UCO, SOXL, TQQQ, FAS, CURE, KRE, IEZ, IYT… Need more leadership and these sectors will be key to any upside follow through.
- Total Market ETF (VTI) Shows clearly the consolidation pattern with the failed attempts to bounce Feb 26th, Mar 9th, and Apr 18th. Any move above the last high of April 18th would be a win for the upside cause.
- Crude Oil (USO/UCO) upside gets a move on analyst comments concerning the sanction against Iran. We will watch how this unfolds and look for the opportunity to add to our existing position in both oil and energy stocks.
- Apple (AAPL) gapped higher on earnings and then added to the move with Warren Buffet increasing his stake in the stock. The move above the $181 resistance is a positive for the chart.
Friday’s move was a positive for the day. It put some sectors in a position to continue their upside moves. It put some in a trend reversal position. I curbed the fall of others… the challenge is follow through. There have been plenty of opportunities for a trend change since the low on February 8th… but none have followed through… we are looking for a follow through if the trend is to shift. Equally we need a catalyst that is strong enough to carry the trend forward.
(The notes above are posted on the weekend and updates are added in red daily as they change or develop.)
Sector Rotation of S&P 500 Index:
One big change of note concerning sectors… The Global Industry Classification Standard is making a change to the Telecommunications Services Sector. It will become the Communications Services Sector which sounds minimal but could have a significant impact going forward. They are adding NFLX, DIS, CSMSA, FB, and GOOGL. The new structure will be enforced the end of September. This will make it more of a growth sector overall but could dampen some of the volatility the sector has experienced over the last two years.
- XLB – Materials remain below the $58.44 entry point and holding above the April lows. The trend remains down from the January highs. Watching how this unfolds going forward. FCX and NEM have been a key weakness the last two weeks for the sector. Moved back to the $58.44 level again and watching.
- XLU – Utilities have been under pressure from the speculation of higher interest rates from the Fed and a weaker dollar. I waited for support and the next opportunity as the fear evaporated and reality settled in. $48.55 entry. Stop $49.50 (adjusted). The ETF pays a 3% dividend and I am willing to stick with the slow-moving sector for now. The close above $51.11 with a test this week is a positive for the chart. The break above consolidation range ($51.11) offers another entry point to add to the position. Fall on worries about interest rates. Held support and bounced on Thursday.
- IYZ – Telecom has become more of a trading sector than the buy and hold historically. The volatility has increased and thus swing trading works better. Some buying? Some selling? Bounced off support again and making another possible move higher… watching $27.25 entry level. Bottoming pattern again.
- XLP – Consumer Staples broke the February lows, March lows and is in the process of establishing the April low. The downtrend remains in place and the short side has paid nicely the last two months. Unless there is some leadership in the sector we remain short XLP. Stop $50.63. Grocery stores have been the big drag in the sector. Bottoming pattern developing.
- XLI – Industrials broke support at the 200 DMA and testing the $71.43 mark. Watching for the next opportunity to unfold from here. Defense contractors are the drag on the sector currently. Positive bounce back to the 200 DMA and follow through upside on Wednesday and follow through on Thrusday.
- XLE – Energy broke from the bottoming trading range move up 7.5% and is now in a flag pattern. Looking for the continuation of the trend by clearing $74. Entry $68.82. Stop $$71 (adjusted). Crude move on Friday gave little benefit… need to confirm the upside in crude and stocks will follow. moves higher in the range… looking for more upside based on the current news surrounding the sector. Gapped higher on Wednesday to keep the upside alive. held the move on Thursday.
- XLV – Bounced off $79.50 support. No upside follow through as the sector moved back below the $81.81 mark… tested support from April low and not looking very positive near term. Positive bounce on Friday, but we need to see more to have interest in the sector. Testing the previous lows again. Holding support, but not much happening. biotech made upside move finally on Wednesday to help. Bounced back to $81.81 resistance and bottoming still in play.
- XLK – Technology tested $64 support after failing to hold the bounce off low in March. The bounce on Friday was a positive to help restore the uptrend short term. SOXX is key to move as it added solid gains on Friday. Software (IGV) moved higher as well. SKYY and HACK looking positive in uptrends as well. Added some upside leadership again on Thursday. Break above resistance is a positive. Adding positions in the sector on the move.
- XLF – the sector has become a hot potato with the interest rates moving, dollar struggling, and geopolitics in the news daily. Held support at $26.90. Sluggish response to the positive earnings data. The sector is weaker than I would like. Need to follow through to the bounce on Friday. KIE has been the weak link. Positive moves off the test of support. Back to the top of the range. Looking for upside follow through. $28.24 is level to clear with some volume.
- XLY – Consumer Discretionary sold to support at $99.40. Bounced and cleared $102.51 resistance. Testing the move higher and watching the upside. Entry $102.50. Stop $99.37. XRT key to the upside. Still in consolidation mode.
- RWR – REITs reacting to the current uncertainty around the hike in interest rates. Bounced off the $84 support again and cleared the $85.65 resistance. Entry $86.45. Stop $84. KIM, HCP, DLR, SPG, and CUZ leading the bounce higher. Sector broke through resistance and showing positive upside opportunities short term. Added to the break higher on Thursday.
The trend since January high is down. We are in a short-term downtrend despite all the talking heads stating and hoping otherwise!
The long-term trend off of the February 2016 low is up. Testing with a consolidation pattern currently that will determine a continuation of the trend or a trend shift.
We continue to look for a solution to the consolidation which is leadership… none in place for now. A catalyst would be equally helpful… Patience is the key.
No big changes on Monday or Tuesday… watching the news and volume. Wednesday shows signs of hope for the buyers and the return of the upside. Thursday followed through with another upside day. I am not counting on anything spectacular, but some upside movement near term would be a positive.
(The notes above are posted on the weekend and updates are added in red daily as they change or develop.)
The question remains about direction and volume. There is a lack of conviction from either side as the volume remains below average and neither side seems to want control. The leadership has not appeared yet. We are do see Energy, Dollar, and Commodities and taking on some leadership… but, they are not sectors you want to lead. Only four of the eleven sectors moved higher for the week. The S&P 500 index closed slightly lower on the week and needs some leadership if it is to follow through on the move Friday. The key is to focus on the strategy you want to take during the current market environment. News and speculation will drive the short-term while fundamentals drive the long term. Earnings helped earlier in the week and modest economic data offered some upside Friday to end the week. Short term we are in a process of a bounce off support and a test. We need to break through the resistance on higher volume if anything is to materialize on the upside. The goal remains money management, not market speculation…
ONE DAY at a time is the key for now. Take a longer-term view of your overall portfolio and manage the risk of your short-term trades accordingly.
“Vision without action is a daydream… Action without vision is a nightmare.” Japanese proverb
The goal of these notes is to allow you, the investor, to learn how to see the market development as the progression through the sector develop based on news, speculation, and data. Data drives long-term results and develops trends… speculation and news are short-term drivers and offer higher risk trading opportunities. Through the use of both technical and fundamental data, we can have greater confidence in our trading strategies with a disciplined approach to investing and managing the risk of our money.