Markets sell early rally and close up slightly on Monday. This stopped the selling from last week, but it didn’t do much to show the buyers have conviction on the upside. In fact, I am not sure there is conviction on either side for now. I have this image of the old “Rock-em’ Sock-em’ Robots” game I played as a kid. If you connected to the head they would pop up like you knocked it off. Replace the robots with a bull and a bear with boxing gloves and we have the same game being played by investors and traders currently. No one can predict what the markets will do day-to-day or for that matter, what they will do over the 12 or 36 months. We can however design a strategy around the trends on the daily, weekly or monthly charts that will allow us to act in accordance with the trend of the market good or bad. Keep it simple, make sure it is actionable and define where you will exit or enter the trend based on experience. Practice makes perfect… thus practice perfect until you can do it with confidence.
As stated in the weekly outlook post, I don’t want to get into all the issues facing the markets fundamentally this weekend I want you to look at the trends… keep in perspective that the trend rules until it is broken. There has to be a catalyst in place (not just speculation) that will confirm the trend is broken and allow the sellers to control the trend and then short trades will take precedence. Respect the noise, don’t get caught up in it, and trade/invest according to your disciplined strategy. Nothing more nothing less. I am not lecturing here, but I am attempting to remind you to stick to what you know and don’t get sucked into the hype surrounding the markets day-to-day. There will be plenty of opportunities as we move forward… there is no need to force anything… let the market come to you and follow the trend. Monday posted reinforcement to the upside bias. How it plays out is still undetermined, but we will stick with the trend for now.
NOTE: The following are things to watch and evaluate during the trading day…
- RUSS – Short Russia trade is playing out as oil struggles again and the outlook for the Russian markets isn’t very positive. Move above $31.80 is second breakout confirmation for the ETF.
- China (FXI) is back in the headlines relative to the US being involved in the US and threats of war. That is speculation… stimulus is fact and the outlook for further stimulus on the way all eyes are on the buy side? Watching for the bounce to confirm off the the near term low.
- Japan (EWJ) has established a technical wedge of consolidation near the highs. The break higher would be a positive short term for the country ETF. Watching how this unfolds short term.
- Kansas City Southern (KSU) shows why the transports continue to struggle. Put in a low on Friday with a reversal today… looking for follow through and possible upside trade technically.
- Dow (DIA) remains under pressure from the sellers. A break below the 50 DMA would be the point to watch for a downside trade setup for the index. SDOW is the leveraged short ETF and would offer a higher risk offering. Watching to see how it unfolds.
- UUP – dollar holding the $25.50 support for now… watching how it unfolds with the current four day consolidation. 50 DMA is near by as well.
- FDN – tech moving and internet is part of the move higher. Breakout at 67.70. Hit entry and stop at $66.75.
- IYZ – telecom moved to support at the $29.70 mark. Bounce or break lower? The break lower takes out the trendline from the October low and offers a short side trade opportunity. Look for entry near $29.50 short if this falls lower.
- Healthcare (XLV) remains a positive sector overall and hitting against resistance short term. The providers (IHF) broke higher on Friday taking a leadership role. Pharma (XPH) starting to confirm the reversal off the May lows. Sector is of interest looking longer term as a hold and manage the risk.
- Biotech (IBB) attempting to move higher again with $366 level of resistance level to take out. Use that as level of entry for s short term trade on the break higher. Large cap ETF XBI moved above resistance on Friday at the $237 mark and held on Monday. Watch the upside trade on the follow through.
MAJOR INDEX STORIES:
S&P 500 Index (SPY) index isn’t acting well based on the current indecision from investors. Close below the $211.90 mark again and we will see how this unfolds near term. Keep your stop on positions at the $204.50 level. The trends are still intact on the upside. Don’t rush to any conclusions on the downside yet, let it play out. Patience is ugly thing, but it is usually the right thing.
NASDAQ 100 Index (QQQ) held above the $109 support, but the downside risk is being tested intraday. Upside remains in place and we keep stops at $104.40 on short term positions (3-9 month horizon). Trust the trend until it breaks for now.
Russell 2000 Index (IWM) The index moved back above the $123.75 move. The stop at $122.50 on trades (0-13 week) holding barely. October trendline not recovered and still watching. Downside below $118.80 is stop on short term trades. Don’t assume anything as this unfolds… expect volatility short term.
Volatility Index (VIX) Closed at 13.9 and still not showing much in terms of anxiety. However the intraday movement in stocks is showing the lack of trust or traders activity due to the indecision. Watching to see how this unfolds. Interesting note relative to the discrepancy in the VXX trade and the VIX index in early selling Monday. VXX was negative and so was the VIX index. Never really adjusted on the day… shows traders are not buying into the negative swings intraday. Watching how it unfolds today.
Transportation (IYT) Broke support at the $154 mark and sold lower last week. The bounce on Monday brings the question of a reversal on the selling… but we will have to watch and see how it unfolds. 50 DMA crossed below the 200 DMA as technical sell and it is still in play. The index is in downtrend short term and Dow Theory says this is negative for stocks going forward… Words to watch.
Dollar (UUP) shifted gears again back to the upside as worries in Europe return over Greece. Throw in some speculation about the global economies and the bond buying program in Europe. $25.10 level cleared on upside to the dollar. Modest selling to end the week and we will watch how it unfolds in the coming week of trading.
Crude Oil (OIL) Big bounce on Friday to recover from the selling down to $57.68 level on crude. The close Friday was $60.30 as the range holds and speculation remains. New speculation trade added on Monday. (ONLY ETF Strategy)
Crude oil (UCO) was the story on Friday jumping more than 3% and back above the $60 mark? IF (big if) trade through the top of the trading range sets up a trade opportunity in the commodity. Dollar firmed on Monday and that kept a lid on the move higher.$47.50 entry on UCO if the upside remains in play.
Emerging markets (EEM) breaking lower opens short trade opportunity if you are willing to take the risk. EDZ is the ETF on short side with 3 times leverage… you can adjust your trade size to account for the leverage and allow for more volatility in the trade. Entry hit at $29.60.
Regional Banks (KRE) – breaking higher from the trading range short term and now it has reversed. $41.85 entry hit and the upside was in favor of rates moving higher… but, that is being questioned and the stocks have moved off the highs and testing lower again. $40.70 is the stop… Still not a picture of strength short term, but we will let it play out. Too much noise, but still place to be longer term view.
Software (IGV) leading sector for tech is testing support at the $100.50 level currently. Keeping the uptrend in play needs some help… manage positions. Selling is to be watched and stops in place at $100. Holding for now.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Held support at the $74.50 level and keeping the trend moving higher… break above $77 would be of help for the trend to continue upside move. May report showed slight move higher, but nothing great. Trend fundamentally on the consumer is flat and that is keeping things in check for now. $74.50 exit point on the downside. Patience is necessary near term.
Financials (XLF) This sector is all about Fed speculation. Will they raise interest rates or not. Manage the risk and look to see how this plays out near term. This is one sector in favor of higher rates. If that is true, we would want to hold long term positions… wide stops and ignore the volatility based on speculation from analyst. Focus on what you believe. Stop $23.80. Testing $24.50 support again.
Healthcare (XLV) – Found support at the $71.25 mark and reversed and headed towards a new high as the confidence returned to the sector. $73.50 needs to hold micro term. Short term $74 level to watch for support or move above the $75.25 level of resistance.
Bonds (TLT) We bounced off the $118.50 support and followed through clearing the $121.50 mark on a bottom reversal. Bonds were oversold and the bounce is playing out with a target at $124. Hit the entry for trade and stop moved to $120.35. Let this unfold and manage your stops short term. The jump in yields Monday sent the bond lower and held the $120.35 entry level?
- TLT bounced off the $118.50 support and now looking at the upside trade. TMF is leveraged ETF. entry $74.95 watch on Tuesday. HIT entry at $75.20 early. Put stop at $76.80 currently. HIT STOP ON Monday.
Industrials (XLI) – if (and that is a big if) the global economies continue to recover and growth takes root… industrial stocks should rise from the dead. This story will take time to validate, but it is one worth our attention as we move forward. Trading range and downtrend off the February high are the key issues for entry. ($56.80 level to watch.) Hit the entry point with move higher… still plenty of long term opportunity. Stop $55.20. Big negative day on Friday moving below the 50 DMA… honor the stops if the downside follows through.
Semiconductors (SOXX) this was one messy chart, but it developed into a trading range and broke higher ($96 for entry hit). The follow through to end the week was a positive and it has established itself as one of the leaders near term. Manage the risk of the volatility in the markets accordingly and raise your stop $98.85 to start the week.
- INTC – $33.50 entry on breakout for the stock and willing to add again for the upside move. This is one of the old leaders rising off the lows and the fundamental outlook is positive… Stop $32.50. Acquisition of Altera (ALTR) sent the stock lower… watching.
- NXPI – nice move to break from the trading range (entry $104.50) and broke above the March high. looking for follow through and opportunity. stop $107. Nice follow through on the upside currently.
“Vision without action is a daydream… Action without vision is a nightmare.” Japanese Proverb.