MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 18, 2019
Buyers remained engaged despite expiration Friday. The large-caps continue to take the leadership role with small and midcaps lagging. Overall it was a good week for the markets as the major indexes make an attempt to move above the resistance of the October/December highs. This has been a key resistance area for the markets and all is progressing nicely currently. We continue to take what the market gives and focus on the objective at hand along with the risk. NASDAQ and S&P both clear resistance levels and the Dow is struggling on Boeings issues. We adjust our stops and look forward to next weeks trading.
The S&P 500 index closed up 14 points to 2822 and peaking above the 2815 resistance level. The uptrend from the December lows remains following the test. The buyers remain engaged with a solid move higher for the week. Six of the eleven sectors closed in positive territory on the day. Consumer discretionary and technology were the leading sectors to close on the upside. The downside was led by energy and industrials. The long-term trendlines have improved and are approaching the key levels to offer an entry signal if we can jump through the key resistance. We will watch how the current activity unfolds and the impact on the trends longer term. SPXL entry $33.50, stop $42 (adjusted).
The NASDAQ index closed up 57.6 points to close at 7688. The large-cap stocks have been the leader for the move higher this week. The close back above 7505 is positive for the index. Semiconductors posted a solid week to help lead the index higher overall. QQQ is our indicator near term. The bounce produced some opportunities to buy an upside position on clearing the $152.51 mark and holding. TQQQ entry $34.17. Stop $48.16 (adjusted). Solid leadership in this sector and watching how it deals with the move above the $177.58 resistance levels. Simply looking for a follow through.
Small Cap index (IWM) the next leg of the move higher stalled, hitting resistance at the $154.90 level again. The chart is still not very convincing with the buyers not quite as robust and the volume on the low side. Watching how the bouncing ball rolls. We are looking at what opportunities result near term. Need some signs of follow through or do we return to the downside?
Transports (IYT) hit some resistance at the $192.42 level. The test of the $182.43 mark held and a bounce back to resistance. $186.70 is level to clear currently and watching how this sector unfolds. Pressure from the airlines has not helped the situation for the sector oveall. The break lower hit our near term stop as we watch how this unfolds.
The dollar (UUP) is reacting to the data on the economy improving. The week saw a big drop in the buck worries creep into the currency. Needless to say, the data is adjusting and so is the dollar currently. The big question mark for the buck remains a possible resolution to the trade tariffs with China. The dollar closed at $25.80 and remains in a positive pattern holding support… Watching as this continues to unfold.
The Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 12.8 on Friday moving lower with the buyers engaged and the anxiety evaporates from last week. This is the lowest level since
Economic data remains in an undefined category of so-so. Inventories for December rose 1.1% versus 0.4% in November… not a good number as it equates to slower sales… a fact that earnings reflected for the fourth quarter. This adds to the weaker retail sales data and existing home sales. GDP for Q4 is 2.6% vs 2.3% expected… party! However, it was 3.5% in Q3… Friday posted a weaker ISM manufacturing number to 54.2%. Personal income fell in January along with consumer sentiment. Core inflation remains tame and well within the Fed range… Weaker data is a warning sign for stocks. Watching how this unfolds moving forward.
The jobs report was weaker not helping the outlook on Friday. The concern was job growth almost stalled with only 20,000 new jobs created. This continues to show a sharp slowdown in the economic picture in the first quarter. Weakest numbers since September 2017.
Retail sales rose 0.2% for January versus -0.1% expected. Much better than expected overall. The December numbers were revised lower making the data look much better than expected.
Wednesday the PPI data showed inflation remains in the approved range for the Fed. Durable goods rose 0.4% in January… well above expectations. Capital goods investment rose 0.8% and construction was up 1.3% in January… both above expectations… positive to see the improvements versus fourth quarter.
(The notes above are posted daily based on the activity of the previous days trading. The BOLD/ITALIC comments are current day changes worth noting.)
KEY INDICATORS/SECTORS & LEADERS TO WATCH:
Biotech (IBB) The selling gave way to buying and the sector bounce back to the key resistance level of $115.03. Watching how it unfolds and what opportunities present themselves.
Semiconductors (SOXX) Nice recover for the week from the sector bouncing off the support at $175.89 and climbing above the $187.40 resistance. Watching how this unfolds moving forward. Reentry $182.50. Stop $182.50.
Software (IGV) Broke $167.88 and bounced back above the same level to create the December lows and start the new trend. $167 level added a trading position. Entry $167.90. Stop $200.45 (adjusted). Cleared $197.48 and moved to the previous highs from September as we attempt to break higher. Topping pattern in play and need a move above the $210 level.
REITs (IYR) Tanked on uncertainty from the Fed and the economic outlook. Broke $75.21 and bounced… trading opportunity on reversal above $75.21. Entry $75.25. Stop $84 (adjusted). Managed to break above the trading range in a positive week of trading. Adjusted stop and letting it unfold.
Treasury Yield 10 Year Bond (TNX) closed the week at 2.59% as yields fall on weaker economic data. TLT moved back to the top end of the current trading range after testing the $118.59 support levels. Watching the bond near term along with the volatility index. Yields remain near the current lows this week.
Crude oil (USO) worries about the IMF data on the global economy give way to speculation about supplies moving lower on OPEC promise to lower production… again. Plenty of issues as the current consolidation remains in play. The move above the $48.03 level offered some hope and opportunity to add a trading position. UCO entry $15.10. Stop $18.42 (adjusted). Managing our risk and letting this play out with our target $58.25 (crude price) hit this week…
Emerging Markets (EEM) Watching as the bounce from the bottoming pattern moves sideways in a range of uncertainty about trade and economic growth. Rumors of trade resolutions and talks with China helped the index but needs some reality to follow through. Watching for the clarity to unfold. Cleared $40.88 and broke higher from a double bottom pattern. Entry $41. Stop $40.50 (adjusted). News from the European Union and the European Central Bank on the state of the economy is not good for the sector. Fell to support and watching how it unfolds.
Gold (GLD) spiked lower and is now in a bear flag pattern. Watching how the metal responds to
MidCap (IJH) The uptrend from the December lows are testing with a move below the $190.44 support. Growth stocks have stalled with the large-caps taking the lead… watching how this unfolds going forward.
China (FXI/YINN) the country ETF is a good benchmark for what is taking place with the current news and tariffs. Cleared resistance at $43.50, reversed
(The notes above are posted every weekend and updated daily Bold Italics)
DAILY SCANS FOR OPPORTUNITIES AND RISK MANAGEMENT
FRIDAY’s Scans, March 15th: Positive day overall, but we can still see weakness in the small and mid-cap sectors. We need growth stocks to participate if new highs are to be hit and maintained. The break above resistance on the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indexes is a positive start to upside continuation. Semiconductors had a big week breaking higher as well… taking it one day at a time with our stops in place. Bias still remains with the buyers near term.
- Technology (XLK) breaks above $72.35 resistance for a continuation of the uptrend… looking for follow through next week.
- Semiconductors (SOXX) cleared the $187.40 resistance on Friday… taking a leadership role to help the NASDAQ move higher.
- Brazil (BRZU) bounced from the test lower and is at a decision point to move higher. The $35.75 level is key if the bottom reversal is to follow through.
- Biotech (IBB) making its way back to resistance and now needs to follow through… small caps moving higher would help the cause.
- Europe (EURL) solid week for the country ETF. Cleared resistance at the $26.80 mark to continue the uptrend. Adjusting stop and letting this run.
Positive week for the broad markets. Taking what it offers and ignoring the speculation. Plenty of economic data to ponder along with global picture. Taking it one day at a time.
THURSDAY’s Scans, March 14th: Day of digesting the move back to resistance. Watching how the Friday quadruple witching expiration settles. I expect some intraday volatility and testing. There is still money flow in the market as stocks are rewarded for good earnings. Some rotation with large-cap leading, small and midcaps are lagging… looking for the catalyst.
- Little movement overall in the sectors resulting in little changes in the scans.
- Gold (GLD) volatility related to the dollar and better economic data. the result has been a test lower in the metal and the stocks.
- Dollar (UUP) volatility about the direction of both the US and global economies. The stall in the China talks about tariffs isn’t helping the global pictures, but better data in the US is helping the domestic outlook.
- Large-Cap (SPY/QQQ) strength of the move higher this week with solid leadership from all. NVDA, COST, AAPL FITB, BHGE, are examples of the leadership currently.
- Other sectors of note for the week… IBB, BRZU, XLK, XLF, EURL, UCO, IYR, all have show solid upside opportunity.
Plenty of work to be done and plenty to ponder as this all unfolds.
WEDNESDAY’s Scans, March 13th: Third day on the upside as we now face resistance from the previous levels. The questions will be if we can move through this time or is there another test in store for stocks? Watching as this unfolds the balance of the week. Positive economic data gets credit for the reversal in stocks as January numbers continue to show solid improvement. Healthcare and industrials led on the day with the dollar slipping lower on positive economic data and some global new about Brexit. Taking it one day at a time and managing our risk
- Biotech (IBB) solid bounce off support and back above the $112 resistance levels. $115 level to clear.
- Energy (XLE) creeping back towards the key resistance levels as crude breaks higher on the positive economic data. The move above the $57.50 mark is positive for crude and looking for a follow through on the upside. UGA continues positive upside move and adjusting stop to $27.76.
- Financials (XLF) positive move back above the $26.33 level with plenty of work left to be done.
- Europe (EURL) positive boost from the BREXIT news. The March 29th deadline may get moved or a possible move to stay? Still too many questions for my liking.
- Dollar (UUP) declined for the third day as economic data is helping ease the flight to safety and currency hedge. Watching how it unfolds as an indicator for banks, global markets, and bonds.
Solid bounce this week in stocks, but we face the previous resistance levels again and watching how this unfolds.
TUESDAY’s Scans, March 12th: another positive day following the selling on Friday and most of last week. Plenty of activity with stocks testing support and the opportunity to move higher in play. Taking it one day at a time and managing our risk accordingly. Plenty to like as well as be cautious about.
- China (FXI) big jump off the recent lows as investors have mixed emotions on trade agreement and the economic outlook for China. Letting this unfold.
- Utilities (XLU) benefactor to lower rates and money rotating towards safety. Solid upside gains the last three days.
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) rallied back to the previous highs already and watching the individual leadership unfold.
- Gold Miners (GDX) benefitting from the bounce in the metal… Letting this unfold near term.
- Treasury Bonds (TLT/TMF) upside gaining traction as the money rotates towards safety. Letting it run for now.
Solid two day bounce in progress… watching how this unfolds with the challenges facing the economy and the global markets overall.
MONDAY’s Scans, March 11th: Solid day for stocks and with all the sectors closing on the upside all is well… right? Not so fast. The bounce was just that and we will see how strong it is moving forward. The positive is all our positions gained some breathing room. The bad news is our stops were hit on Friday in several sectors and we will watch to see if they recover enough to reenter any of them. Taking what the market offers and seeing how it unfolds.
Sector Rotation of S&P 500 Index:
- XLB – New lows and found support… got the move above the $50.35 mark. Entry $50.50. Stop $54.10. Upside tested at the $55.95 mark again.
- XLU – The utility sector found support at $51.11… moved above $52.72. Moved above $57.10 resistance and showing some near term topping. Watching and managing the risk. Entry $53. Stop $55.25.
- IYZ – Telecom found new lows and bounced… $26.25 level cleared for upside trade. Entry $26.35. Stop $28.25 (adjusted). Trying to clear the February highs.
- XLP – Consumer Staples found new lows and bounced. Cleared $50.50 and continued upside trend. $54.92 level of resistance to watch. Managing our risk. Entry $51.90. Stop $53.
- XLI – Industrials moved to near-term low and bounced. $65 level cleared for trade opportunity. Entry $65. Stop $74.05 (adjusted). Testing $74.15 support and not looking good.
- XLE – Energy stocks bounced back with crude prices moving higher. Remain in the trading range and plenty of uncertainty in the sector overall.
- XLV – Healthcare fell to the 200 DMA and bounced at support. Still not showing a lot of strength overall. Watch the parts for clues as
XPH stalls, but IHI and IHF show some positive signs.
- XLK – Technology moved to near-term lows and bounced. $61.70 cleared for trade opportunity. Entry $61.70. Stop $68 (adjusted). $71 resistance to clear as the sector tests support. SOXX, IGN, HACK, SOCL, and IGV all part of the puzzle for the upside to continue.
- XLF – Financials moved to recent lows and bounced. $23.76 level cleared for trade. Entry $23.80. Stop $25.50. Solid earnings boosted the sector and finally breaking above the $26.33 resistance. Need leadership from the sector.
- XLY – Consumer fell to near-term lows and bounced. $98.96 level cleared for trade. Entry $99. Stop $107 (adjusted). Cleared resistance at $109.21, but has tested on the downside this week. Consumer coming into question short term.
- RWR – REITs broke lower… bounced from lows clearing $93.21 resistance… positive upside move. Entry $88. Stop $96.50. Watching and managing the risk. Made move to new high last week.
(The notes above are posted Weekly based on the activity of the previous weeks trading. The BOLD/ITALIC comments are current day changes worth noting.)
Markets tested and held key support levels. The bounce from the December lows remain in play and watching how the buyers respond to the move above key resistance levels to end the week. Looking at the charts you can see the key levels of support holding, the key resistance levels giving way to end the week, and now comes the question of follow through on the upside. Are the sellers done? Do the buyers have enough conviction to head to new highs? Plenty of question marks and only time will tell the outcome. There are some issues facing investors as the trade agreement has not materialized with China. Fundamental data is weak overseas. Some positive economic data for January helping the cause. We will take the positive week for what it was as we continue to emphasize sound money management. We have look at positions to take profits, adjust stops, and manage the risk of the current environment. The goal is to avoid speculation and follow our disciplined strategy for each position. Taking it one day at a time.
Ten of the eleven sectors managed to close the week in positive territory as money moved into large-cap stocks. Technology and healthcare led the upside for the week. Industrials were the laggard as money looks for a new home. Interest rates ended at 2.59% as they continue the trek lower. The ten-year bond moves back to the top end of the range showing money rotation short term. The dollar struggled as talks of a strong US economy plays into the speculation of the Fed. We continue to take this one day at a time. There is plenty of influencers in the markets currently and headlines are the drivers.
Disciplined entry and exit points allow you to manage your risk in up or downtrends. Investing and trading is a matter of a defined strategy implemented with discipline. It is not magic. It is not being a prophet. It is about following your strategy one day at a time.
“Vision without action is a daydream… Action without vision is a nightmare.” Japanese proverb
The goal of these notes is to allow you, the investor, to learn how to see the market development as the progression through the sector develop based on news, speculation, and data. Data drives long-term results and develops trends… speculation and news are short-term drivers and offer higher risk trading opportunities. Through the use of both technical and fundamental data, we can have greater confidence in our trading strategies with a disciplined approach to investing and managing the risk of our money.