New Year Outlook

With 2015 started and the markets focused on the current uncertainty facing it this year investors and analyst alike are pontificating on the what the year holds in store for us. As I have said too often, I am not good at prognostication or speculation. The reality is we can only control today and that is where my focus lies currently. I wanted to take a moment and share with you some of the changes for 2015. The following is a brief overview of what we have changed and what we are doing to better provide you with the education and direction you want as investors and traders.

First, we have revised the Sector Rotation Strategy to incorporate a longer term view for the markets. Our focus will be 3-18 month holding periods. Any positions held less than that timeline being to hedge or manage existing positions risk short term. We discussed this in the webinar in December if you would like to review that for more information. This is a strategy we have used to manage money professionally for more than 20 years. In light of the changes we have removed all the old data from the site as it no longer applies to this strategy and would not be a fair representation going forward. We will do more education on this strategy in the first quarter to help you in understanding fully how the strategy is run. If you have questions as we move forward feel free to ask via email to Jim@JimsNotes.com.

Second, the S&P 500 Strategy has adjusted the potential holdings to add the leveraged ETFs for bonds and extended the period to the 20+ year treasury bonds. This offers a better hedge to the portfolio and with the leverage we have the ability to allocate less money to get the same potential effect on the strategy. Both TMF and TBT will be used as alternative. The short index ETF for the S&P 500 has been changed as well to the leveraged ETF (SDS). It has better volume and allows for lesser amounts of money to hedge the or benefit from the downside of the index. We have back tested this with the historical trades made in the non-leveraged ETFs and found it to work more effectively for the strategy. Again if you have any questions on this please forward them directly to me.

Third, Jim’s Notes that are published daily will undergo some changes. The format will take on more of a blog look in the new year. It will allow me to share more information personally and provide better education on a daily basis. The research and trading notes on the site will have all the market information you need each day to deal with both the strategies as well as what my take on the market is day-to-day. One of my long term goals has been to return to my roots of teaching and this is just another format for doing this along with the webinars and future publications I am writing on specific topics around the process of money management. We are all guilty of making the investment process too complicated as we take on the belief that we need to beat the market or be smarter than the market, as well as others about the process of trading and investing. For me the reality is the exact opposite… over 30+ years of experience has taught me one thing very clearly… TAKE WHAT THE MARKET GIVES! When I try to be smarter or beat the market it reminds me of when I was a kid hitting a tennis ball against a wall to practice; no matter how great my shot to the wall was it always managed to return it! The market is the same way… no matter how great of a trade I make today based on my super strategy, tomorrow the market is just as likely to take it back. It is an inanimate object made up of trading and investing neurotics just like me. The goal is to make money, respect the risk of the market and take exactly what it is willing to give… nothing more, nothing less.

I will be sharing more information, opportunities, goals, strategies, ideas and dreams through the blog format. I encourage your feedback, questions and input. This is going to be a great year of learning, growing and making money based on what opportunities the market provides. I hope everyone had a very Happy New Year and you are ready to make progress in 2015.