The week ended with some mixed moves in the market as it was divided between the growth stocks moving lower on higher interest rates, and cyclical stocks moving higher on higher interest rates and inflation concerns. The rotation story has been unfolding for several weeks, but the news from Washington on Friday stating the new stimulus package would be on its way to the floor for a vote next week was the catalyst on the day. Markets are concerned about the excess at a time when markets are already elevated as well as the inflationary implications. The ten-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.35%. The highest level since February of last year. Definitely, plenty to ponder on this front looking forward.
Short news notes of interest…
- Existing home sales increased 0.6% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted 6.69 million. Sales were up 23.7% from January 2020. Supply is now at an all-time low and in turn, it is pushing housing prices higher… wildcard is interest rates. If yields continue higher it will deter the affordability of housing. An area to watch looking forward.
- The NFL is asking Disney for a 100% price increase for the broadcasting rights… they have been pushing back and it is still up in the ‘air’ as to who will win the rights… watching DIS and FOX stocks. Disney is already killing it in the streaming space with 146 million subscribers across its companies.
- Visa (V) stated the crisis has sped up the adoption of digital payments. They believe this will be a $185 trillion money movement in payment flows… capture fractional pennies on those transactions and you stand to make a lot of money. That doesn’t exclude the $17 trillion currently circulated over to cards… big money. Follow the money it always knows… definitely worth tracking this sector.
- A weaker dollar is the outlook for 2021… what does that mean to investors? A steep decline will cause issues with gold, oil, global trade, global companies, etc. The dollar is far more reaching than your wallet. The buck has declined 11% over the last ten months and if stimulus passes Congress this month it could fall even further… watching how this storyline unfolds and where the opportunities lie. FXE, UDN, FXB, and others are where we need to look.
- Semiconductors (SOXX) pushed back to highs after a small test on Thursday. AMAT earnings helped the cause with a solid gain of its own on Friday. QRVO broke from the wedge consolidation pattern near the highs as well offering an upside opportunity. Digging into the sector to find leadership is always an option to add to the sector versus adding to the ETF. Watching and managing the risk of the sector is equally important.
Sector Rotation and the S&P 500 Index:
The S&P 500 index closed down 7.2 points to 3906. It was down 0.19% on the day. The index closed off the highs as investors show some concern about the economic outlook and inflation. Money flow was lower again as it rotates to where it will be treated best. Five of the eleven sectors closed on the upside with cyclicals leading the upside. The VIX index closed at 22 down slightly on the day. Watching how this unfolds moving forward.
Friday: more rotation of money as the materials, energy, industrials, and financials lead the day. The small caps led the day overall. Semiconductors bounced off support to regain upside move. The chart has a rolling top pattern, but not enough to be a big concern at this point. The index posted a losing week finishing down 0.2%.
- XLB – Basic Materials bounced off the lows with money flow bottoming on the reversal. $70.80 support held and the upside has returned. Solid gains Friday hit entry $74.50. Stop $72.60.
- XLU – Utilities don’t like rising interest rates… thus some downside pressure on the sector near term. Watching as earnings have been good and may offset some selling.
- IYZ – Telecom bounced at the support of $30.95 and moved back to the previous highs and stalled. Watching and managing the risk.
- XLP – Consumer Staples moving lower to establish a near-term downtrend. Watching.
- XLI – Industrials broke from the trading range on Friday keeping the upside trend in place.
- XLE – Energy tested $39.12 support and bounced offering entry. Crude has been the catalyst and watching how it continues. Entry $41. Stop $44 (adjusted).
- XLV – Healthcare hit new highs and has struggled since. Watching the move below the 50DMA currently. Biotech equally has struggled as vaccine rollout is slower than expected.
- XLK – Technology remains in an uptrend but tested the upside and has struggled along with other growth sectors of late. Letting this unfold for now.
- XLF – Financials bounced at the support of $28.95 and bounce back to the previous highs creating a ‘V’ bottom on the chart and a break higher. The upside in play near term. Entry $29.75. Stop $31.53.
- XLY – Consumer Discretionary holds uptrend line and bounced at the 50 DMA. Resumed uptrend and tested the move at the new highs. Watching.
- IYR – REITs have struggled with interest rates, vacancies, and virus talk about people moving out of cities. Held support at the $82 level and moved back to new highs… Watching. Entry $84.45. Stop $87.50.
Using the six-month charts as an indicator for the short term view… Eight sectors are in confirmed uptrends with renewed upside. Three are in consolidation patterns showing indecision from investors, and none are in a downtrend. The result for S&P 500 index is an uptrend short term with a positive bias currently.
(The notes above are posted at the end of each week based on the activity of the previous week’s trading. The BOLD/ITALIC comments are the current day changes worthy of note.)
KEY INDICATORS/SECTORS & LEADERS TO WATCH:
The NASDAQ index closed up 9.1 points to 13,874 The index was up 0.07% on the day with mixed activity overall for the index. The NASDAQ 100 index (QQQ) was down 0.44% for the day as money flow into the sector was lower with some selling. The large caps have been lagging of late and remain a concern as rotation affects the sector. Semiconductors (SOXX) closed up 2.41% resuming the upside move. Technology (XLK) moved down 0.15% after testing the $128.57 level of support and hit a new high. Watching how this unfolds as investors look for opportunities.
Semiconductors (SOXX) The sector remains in an uptrend breaking higher from the consolidation and resuming the uptrend. The sector closed the week on a positive note and watching for the leadership to resume. Entry $415. Stop $426.26.
Software (IGV) The sector came back to life after six weeks of consolidation and volatility. Broke to new highs and showing some consolidation at the current highs. Entry $361.77. Stop $376 (adjusted).
Biotech (IBB) The sector broke higher after testing support and maintained the uptrend. Managing the risk and letting the current testing playout. Entry $164.70. Stop $164.70 (adjusted).
Small-Cap Index (IWM) The sector consolidates near the new highs. Entry at $213.76. Stop $219.38 (adjusted). The uptrend remains in play with some testing at the highs. Watching how it unfolds moving forward.
MidCap (IJH) The sector turned higher along with small caps. Solid move and holding near the highs.
Retail (XRT) The retail sector volatility dropped and some normal returned following the GME frenzy. This week XRT has traded sideways as money flow drops. $81 is the level we are watching to clear on the upside.
Emerging Markets (EEM) The sector recovered from and moved to new highs. China (FXI) is the leader in the sector.
Transports (IYT) The sector has struggled but seeing some upside recovery and interest in stocks. Hit new highs and letting the parts show the leadership. Airlines, shipping, trucking, and ports are all struggling with the logistics side of the equation of late.
The Dollar (UUP) The dollar tested lower to end the week as stimulus and inflation become a real thing for investors. The new team at the Treasury are weak dollar proponents and it is not helping the cause. Devaluing currency has never been good for economic growth.
The Volatility Index (VIX) Volatility closed 22 up from last week’s 19.9 level as anxiety levels rose on the inflation talk. Watching how this unfolds relative to the outcome.
Treasury Yield 10 Year Bond (TNX) The yield closed the week at 1.34% up from 1.2% last week. Rates are rising on inflation fears… negative for bonds. TBT hit entry at $17.84. Stop $19 (adjusted).
Crude oil (USO) Crude moved to $59.15 from $59.47 for the week or down 0.005% for the week. Plenty of speculation to influence prices as OPEC cuts to supply are showing an impact. As we stated nearly seven months ago… the greatest opportunity was in crude. Taking what is offered and managing the risk. USO Entry $29. Stop $38.75 (adjusted). UCO trade position entry $25.78. Stop $49.40 (adjusted).
Gold (GLD) The commodity is struggling against the background of uncertainty relative to the dollar and inflation. Watching as we hold above $166.50 support levels. Still challenged near term.
(The notes above are posted every weekend and updated daily in Bold Print)
DAILY SCANS FOR OPPORTUNITIES AND RISK MANAGEMENTT
FRIDAY’s Scans for February 19th: Markets remain mixed with the separation and rotation becoming more pronounced. Cyclicals rise on inflation concerns and growth stocks decline as money moves. The risk is rising overall, but the stimulus is advancing, and therein lies the solution to the game being played on Wall Street. Semiconductors remain strong growing demand in the manufacturing sectors. Automobiles have a big delay in chips due to rising demand. Overall we see areas of opportunity and areas of concern. Patience as it all unfolds.
- Bitcoin (GBTC) hits the one trillion dollar mark… enough said.
- Treasury Bonds (TLT) with yields rising the bond has been under selling pressure helping our TBT/TMV holding. With the inflation talk, this isn’t going to change tomorrow… watching and managing the risk.
- Crude Oil (USO/UCO) and Gasoline (UGA) hit resistance this week and stalled… watching how it unfolds as supply data shows a steady drawdown in storage across the board. Natural Gas (UNG) has been higher on cold weather… watching as well.
- Semiconductors (SOXX) solid uptrend in play and the renewal on Friday was positive to the trend.
- Copper (COPX) prices have topped $4 a pound for the first time in over nine years.
THURSDAY’s Scans for February 18th: More selling overall, but no real damage done to the charts. This amounts to profit-taking and a test of the move higher. Charts are still in a good position to continue higher and we will remain patient to see how it unfolds. Our stops are in place and the focus remains on the economic data near term. Facts are always better than rumors for the long-term outlook. Patience as we end the week.
- Testing… Energy (XLE), Crude Oil (USO), China (FXI), Biotech (IBB), Small Caps (IWM), Natural Gas (UNG), and Semiconductors (SOXX) all tested the last two days. Stops in place and watching how they unfold.
- Facebook (FB) Watching the fight unfold between government and independent business. This is going to impact the course of history for free trade and independent businesses. The question is will Facebook go it alone will other large companies take a stand? Not to mention, what happens to the stock prices going forward.
- Commodities (DBA, DBC, DBP) all tested on the day… watching.
- Utilities (XLU) got a boost from earnings… parts may be worthy of time to find the leaders versus the whole.
- Homebuilders (ITB) and the housing market overall are raising questions of supply and demand… interest rates rising? What does the future look like? Plenty to watch unfold and important to protect the gains in the sector near term.
WEDNESDAY’s Scans for February 17th: More mixed results for the markets as money is still rotating to where it will be treated the best… energy, telecom, financials, commodities, and China. Taking what is offered and managing the risk. Plenty of data being reported about the economy and plenty to digest as we look forward. Don’t overthink this follow the trends and focus on the reality in the charts.
- Energy (XLE) remains the leader… crude (USO), natural gas (UNG), gasoline (UGA) all leading the upside. Oil services (OIH), exploration (IEO), and other components showing positive trends. NOTE: USO received notice from RBC Capital Markets they cannot buy oil futures contracts. This will hamper its ability to meet the fund’s objective. By prospectus they can hold treasuries and cash. Not good for the fund. We are evaluating what options we have relative to the notice.
- Semiconductors (SOXX) some selling, but the trend remains higher for the sector. Watching how the automobile shortage for chips unfolds as well as the sector overall.
- Apple (AAPL) Berkshire Hathaway sold all their Apple stock as one of the previous largest holders many take that as a bad sign for the stock. Worth watching going forward as the chart shows an uptrend in play, but a major test is showing… watching support and ticker.
- GameStop (GME) just when you thought the story was over… Congress has to get involved… after all, they know show much about this subject. Maybe they are trying to get some insider information from Reddit and others who will testify.
- Phizer (PFE) has not delivered 10 million vaccine supplies to the EU. This is a concern relative to meeting the demand for the vaccine globally. Watching the biotech stocks near term on the news.
TUESDAY’s Scans for February 16th: Interesting start to the week. Moves of interest were in the volatility index, interest rates, crude oil, and the dollar. This shows concerns about inflation. It also signals some rotation in money by investors. Watching how it unfolds and we continue to take what is offered in positions we have while managing the risk.
- Crude Oil (USO) clears the $60 mark per barrel. Raised our stops and watching how it unfolds. Energy (XLE) gapped higher on the day as well.
- Natural Gas (UNG) jumped 4% as the winter storm moves through the country. Taking the upside move and adjusting the stops.
- Financials (XLF) ‘V’ bottom recovery and gapped to new highs. Taking the offering as interest rates helping the upside move.
- Europe (IEV/EURL) Solid upside move and gap higher to start the week. Adjusting our stops and letting this run as vaccine news helping the outlook for Europe.
- Commodities (DBA, DBC, DBP) all moving higher on the inflation concerns. Watching and managing the risk.
MONDAY’s Scans for February 15th: Markets are closed for Presidents Day.
(The Scans are done daily and left on the page for one week to allow you to see the progression of the opportunities or warnings.)
Weekend Wrap & Outlook… The market’s sentiment remains positive with a twist of concerns overall. The upside hope is alive and well with stimulus driving the hope currently. The same stimulus is driving concerns relative to inflation as investors finally believe to some extent rising rates are a challenge for stocks and the economy moving forward. With that in mind, the markets closed the week essentially flat across the major sectors. The cyclicals enjoyed a positive boost on Friday from the discussions. Growth stocks stepped back and watched as money rotated to other areas. Commodities remain a hot topic as well with the rising prices adding to the inflation talks. The long-term trends remain on the upside following the test of momentum. For the week four sectors closed in positive territory as some profit-taking appeared in the markets. The VIX index closed at 22 and higher on the anxiety around inflation. The dollar headed lower thanks to the new Treasury head pushing $1.9 trillion in stimulus. Crude moved sideways at $59.15 after moving near $65 earlier in the week. This is the highest level since February 2020. UGA moved higher with prices at the pump elevated… hopefully you own the ETF to afford the increase. Watching the current movement in the broad markets as money continues to rotate and money flow shifts. The goal remains to manage money not the markets or the pundits in the media. Let the future unfold and manage the risk that is. Track the data. Know where the markets stand relative to the facts. Money rotates to where it will be treated the best. Watch the trend, know which side the Fed is on daily, and ultimately the data will establish the longer-term trend. We remain focused on what is working and what is failing. Therein lies the opportunities.
“Vision without action is a daydream… Action without vision is a nightmare.” Japanese proverb
The goal of these notes is to allow you, the investor, to learn how to see the market development as the progression through the sector develop based on news, speculation, and data. Data drives long-term results and develops trends… speculation and news are short-term drivers and offer higher risk trading opportunities. Through the use of both technical and fundamental data, we can have greater confidence in your trading strategies with a disciplined approach to investing and managing the risk of our money.