Markets End Week Higher

Friday, December 7th – Notes & Research

The week was mixed on one hand and positive on the other. The big story for the week has to go to Apple dropping nearly 12% in value as investor appear to throw in the towel. The support at $520 is key and a break below that mark could accelerate some selling. It has kept the NASDAQ in check as the index failed to clear the 3000 level on the week

The fiscal budget issues remain in the headlines with no real changes overall. The markets at some point will start to price in the cliff as we creep closer to the edge. I am was convinced they would settle this issue, but the saber rattling is getting louder. In the end only time will tell the outcome, but it has an impact on sentiment and it will grow with each passing day.

Next week we look for the move to the upside to continue as we pushed through some short term resistance levels, but plenty remain. The seasonal period is helping stocks on the upside and you don’t want to fight the trend. Take what the market gives one day at a time. Remain disciplined.

1) US Equities:

S&P 500 Index / Sectors-to-Watch

The index moved the 1415 level to close at 1418.. the significance of that will be determined next week. However, the 1415 mark has been a challenge for the index. The 50 day SMA is at the same level currently and could provide some resistance.  The Scatter Graph below has a starting point of 11/15 which was the pivot point for the recent uptrend. As you can see at the end of the chart the sideways movement depicts the confusion from investors as well as some rotation in leadership. Materials bounced back from the selling but remains lower. Technology has struggled with the Apple saga. Still struggling overall to define direction and leadership.

The chart is showing rotation to financials, industrials and utilities as the leaders. Energy has made a turn off the low despite oil dropping back to $86. We continue to watching the jockeying for position short term, but we are still in need of a catalyst to the upside to break through resistance on the index. The market wants to move higher, but it can’t get all the parts going in the same direction.

VIX index has been rising and worth watching as the sideways movement looks for direction up or down?

Click on link above to see the S&P 500 Mode Watch List and Model

Tracking the Indexes and Sectors of Interest:

NASDAQ Index – Apple remains a drag on the index which closed lower on Friday, back below the 200 day moving average and the 3000 mark. As goes Apple, so goes the index for now. Not willing to buy into the index until the Apple flu is cured.

Dow Jones 30 Index – The bounce back above the 200 day moving average is a positive, and we made the move above the 13,080 resistance. 13,300 is the next level to clear

WATCH: DIA – See Sector Rotation Watch List.

S&P 400 Midcap Index – The bounce off the low has now returned to the top end of the previous trading range. A break above the 1000 mark on the index would a positive and a opportunity to trade the sector. Be patient with the entry as this unfolds. failed to make the move on Friday, but the set up is still in play. Watch and manage the risk.

WATCH: IJH – See Sector Rotation Watch List.

2) Currency:

Dollar – The dollar sold lower and broke support at the $21.95 level on UUP earlier in the week. Now it is back at $21.99 and resistance? The greenback has been up and down of late and for now I am more interested in watch than owning the dollar. The dollar index (DXY) pulled back to support at 79.6 and bounced on Friday as well. Not enough room for any trading for now.

Euro – The euro dropped back to the 200 day moving average and looks like the inverse of the dollar for now.

Yen – FXY tested support again at $119 and bounced two days and reversed to $119 again. We will watch to see how support holds?

3) Fixed Income:

Treasury Bonds – The yield on the 10 year rose to 1.62% and the 30 year to 2.81% on Friday. For TLT that pushed it lower from the consolidation wedge and sets up a trade opportunity on the short side. Watch for the outcome on Monday to give some clarity to the trade.
High Yield Bonds – Big bounce on stocks moving higher with stocks. Interesting bounce. Hitting resistance at the 93.50 level. Watch for a follow through move higher?

WATCH: HYG – 92.75 entry. Watch as the upside may be limited on any trade.

4) Commodities:

The commodity sector continues to be a challenge relative to direction short term. The volatility remains very much in play off the recent lows. The best course of action is to take the trading opportunities presented short term.

Oil moved lower testing near term $86 support on the close. Still not acting well. Watch the downside setup.

Gasoline fell to the 200 day moving average and set to test the lows near $53.50.

Since September 2011 Gold has not eclipsed any of it’s previous highs. GLD resistance is at $175. Volume is declining showing loss of interest over the last fifteen months.Look for a test of $161 on GLD and break below is a clear short signal for the metal. Patience as this all unfolds.

Base Metals – DBB are testing resistance at $19.40 on the upside and if we find the catalyst to move through that level would be short term trade opportunity.

5) Global Markets:

The NASDAQ Global Market Index (NQGM) broke above the 200 day moving average. However, the last three days the index has tested lower. The reversal isn’t reflective of the move in the EAFE which closed near the top end of the current trading range.

WATCH: EFA – Back at the highs of $55.20 and in position to break from the trading range for a trade set up. The jump back to this level has been quick and may test before continuing higher. Be patient and see how it play to start the week. ONLY ETF Model.

WATCH: DXJ – Japan total dividend ETF broke higher, tested the 200 day moving average and has moved higher again. The break from the trading range is a positive with a trade entry at $33.25. Consolidating near the current high with a move higher on Friday. Manage your risk and raise stop to $32.85.

WATCH: FXI – China gapped higher on Wednesday (passed on our trade) and held the move today. Clearing the $38.10 resistance on FXI is testing the gap higher and watch for the $36.65 level to hold as possible entry play short term. The economic challenges facing China moving forward are many, but investor are willing to look past that and believe in the trend. Gap higher on Wednesday as money rotates into the ETF.

6) Real Estate (REITS):

The sector broke support tested lower and then reversed along with the broad indexes. The fear generated by the fiscal cliff issues sent the sector lower. The reversal is worth trading if the cliff issues remain at bay short term.

WATCH: IYR – moved above the 200 day moving average. Entry 63.40 – Stop $63.25

7) Global Fixed Income:

Uncertainty about the sovereign debt issues remain, but they are clearing up as the global economy bottoms. Thus, the lack of willingness to accept much in the way of risk from this sector.All of the charts have bounced off the low and continued their respective uptrends. Watch and protect the downside risk in the sector near term.

WATCH: Emerging market bonds (EMB) – testing and moving sideways and held support at $121. HOLD.

WATCH: International High Yield Bonds (IHY) – Tested support at $25.75 and bounced back near high. HOLD.

WATCH: PAFCX – bounced off support near the $11.66 mark. Held the uptrend line and support. HOLD.

WATCH: PICB – International Corporate bonds are breaking above the top end of the current range. HOLD.

Watch and play according to your risk tolerance on any position taken. Everyone has different trading styles and you have to find what works for you and your personality. Don’t put yourself in positions you don’t understand or take risk you can’t tolerate. Not every trade results in a profit, but controlling your risk will limit the downside losses.