Let’s Talk Money Market Update

ltm_live“Let’s Talk Money Live” 
We hope everyone enjoyed tonight’s launch, each week we will take a technical, fundamental, structural and/or psychological look at the markets. The goal is to address what is taking place now and project looking forwards what strategy works best for managing our money. There will be time through the seminar for questions and feedback on managing money and positions currently. The goal is to capture the story of the markets as they unfold each week.
Below are the notes from Tuesday Nights Webinar.
Enjoy… See you next week.

What Factors Are Driving the Markets 

  • OIL Moving Higher = $52?
    • Sustainable? What’ Driving?
      • Short covering….
      • Rigs off line according to IEA report Friday.
      • We will know more in the next couple of weeks as supply data reflects absorption of excess supply.
    • Speculation?
      • Absolutely as the facts are not verified
  • Economic & Earnings = poor
    • Q1 estimates for earnings growth at ZERO!
    • Q4 GDP lower and earnings a big diappointment
    • ISM manufacturing fell again, etc. etc. etc.
    • Jobs – low paying jobs versus better paying jobs.
      • Estimates of 5000 high paying jobs lost in the oil sector last month.
Observations – Psychology of the Market
  • Psychotic – news and events driving investors crazy
  • Lack of Clarity remains a driver
  • Sentiment is like a yo-yo based on news of the day if we are lucky.
Leaders/Losers Sector Rotation: 
  • Rotation to:
    • XLE – Energy
    • IYZ – Telecom
    • XLB  – Basic Materials
    • XLI  – Industrials
      • All oil or commodity related.
  • Rotation From:
    • IBB – biotech
    • SOXX – Semi’s
    • XLK – technology
    • XLV – healthcare
  • Leaders:
    • Small caps – IWM
    • Midcaps – MDY
    • Europe – IEV – EFA
    • China – FXI
  • Losers:
    • NDX – Large Caps
      • CMG, MSFT, YHOO, QCOM, etc. Earnings issues
Actionable Ideas: 
  • Energy trade is set up to test and then run if oil holds above the $50 level. ERX trade. SLB trade.
  • Small Caps are set up to lead the race higher. Midcaps same.
  • VIX index on swings off support resistance.
  • TAN – alternative energy breakout. FSLR leader
  • SPY 202.50 entry. now $206.
  • IWM 117.25 entry. now $119.30.
  • SVXY 54.70 entry.
  • Treasury bonds TLT short trade (now 40.25 TBT)