No I am not talking about the elections. I am talking about the notes. Each day I publish trading/market notes in both Jim’s Notes and Jim’s Trading Notes. Starting Monday, August 17th that will no longer be true. Jim’s Notes will take on a educational role of addressing all that you and I face as ‘financial consumers’. I get questions on everything from mortgages to what books to read on personal finance. Therefore I want to share all the answers to those questions with everyone allowing you take from them what you can in terms of application. For more than thirty years I have counseled, advised, participated, educated and performed almost every possible financial endeavor imaginable. This gives me the opportunity to share with you my story and insight to help you be better educated in the process of financial decision making. One thing I have found to be true over and over again… no one likes to make financial mistakes. The recovery process is expensive and loss of time even more expensive relative to our goals longer term. You will still receive the email each evening with both Jim’s Notes newly revised, and Jim’s Trading Notes just as they always have been.
As the week comes to a close it is important to understand that issues plaguing this market with China, the Fed, the economy, earnings, etc. are not over. Just because we produced and intraday bounce off support and ended the week positive on the major indexes doesn’t dismiss the issues. In fact, in some way it only means they may be more dangerous if the markets don’t make a run higher near term. There is plenty of work left to do and the conviction level of the investor is lacking relative to belief and direction.
As for the ten major sectors we close the week with five in short term uptrends, four in downtrends, and one moving sideways. As I have stated before, that explains very clearly the sideways movement in the major indexes. This will have to shift and rotation will have to take place if the gridlock is to give way to direction… up or down. This week exemplified the state of the market currently. Very news focused as seen with the impact of China’s devaluation move. Stuck in a range as the market sells on the China news, rallies on belief the worst is over. The tetter-totter back and forth in direction and day-to-day beliefs is causing angst among investors and traders. All I can say is to remain patient and let it all unfold before subjecting your money to undue risk.
Running my scans for the last ten trading days or two weeks we find an interesting shift in leadership. The short oil, emerging markets, Europe, Russia, biotech ETFs relative to weakness in those sectors are leading. The long treasury, utilities, coffee, telecom ETFs on the strength side… but, they are all defensive sectors. This shows the shift in sentiment and outlook for the markets near term. As it unfolds the downside risk would grow should these sectors expand further their current trajectory. Thus, the issues facing the markets overall.
Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Be sure to read the trading notes when posted over the weekend. (Check Saturday after 10 am)
Have a nice relaxing weekend.