Thursday – Notes & Research
More changes on the way for the website! Starting this weekend this part of the research pages will be updated weekly, thus making it Jim’s Weekly Notes & Research Page. Why? For the simple reason I want to spend more time over the weekend putting together the trading plan for the upcoming week. The Daily Trading Notes published in the AM will give you the daily updates to the what is important each day to address from the weekly notes. We begin each week with an overall plan based on the seven asset classes outlined below, and then the daily updates addressed in the trading notes each morning. The nightly video will focus on the markets and the impact on the models and opportunities.
The goal is to make it simple to use. Over the weekend you will be able to review the written update and video relative to the coming week over the weekend, daily review the trading notes and updates in the morning, and watch the video update each evening relative to the markets and models. The models will remain the same and updated each morning before trading with stops adjusted and new posts. I am looking forward to the new format! Any feedback is always appreciated.
S&P 500 index next support is 1597 (bounced today), NASDAQ next level 3371 (bounced today off 3378) and the Dow next level of support is 14,841 (bounced today off 14,844). If these level are taken out the downside opens up further short term.
Market hits support, bounces and rallies into the close today. You have to love the buyers… they will not let it die no matter what the news or outlook currently. Tomorrow will interesting as we close the trading week.
We will have to be patient here and see how this plays out tomorrow.
Sector Moves of Note:
- The VIX moved above 18.5 again on Tuesday and closed at 16.6. This has broken down to an intraday trade on early or late day volatility. If you like day trades they are perfect here.
- Gold can’t make a decision on direction. The metal as been up one day and down the next. The move above $137 today was the entry point for the trade. Give it room to decide is all we can do for now. GDX failed to make the move above the $30.45 level as well. Patience is a virtue.
- Natural gas has moved down to support at $21.15 again. Watch the downside and KOLD entry at $18.30 if UNG breaks support. Broke through support and the short play gapped higher at the open. We did not take the entry due to the gap higher. Look for a test or opportunity to buy on pullback. Sector Rotation Model.
- Consumer Staples was the first big break lower for the major sectors. The drop below support at $40.75 was a big negative and move for the sector. Short setup if it continues below the $40 level. Watch to see if bounce back above support holds.
- Healthcare was another break lower as XLV failed to hold $48.70. Watching to see if the $47.25 support holds and it did on Thursday. Still plenty of work to do overall.
- Financials break down on Wednesday, but managed to bounce back on Thursday. The outlook for banks remains positive as go forward.
We talk about downside risk management all of the time. Choppy markets create many headaches for investors as the direction is hashed out. Today is just another example of how the buyers are to attempt to maintain control of the market direction short term.. Manage your risk, you should have exited positions that are not working, and looking for what is working moving forward, if that is the short side, so be it, but most of all be patient.
Jobless claims were positive today to start and the bounce showed some confidence in the steady upside in jobs and economic data. Some of the data shows modest improvement while other parts are showing further decline. Tomorrow is the jobs report for May.
1) US Equities:
Major market indexes bounced again on the day as the downside was short lived. The April 18th chart below is the last low in the test off the April 11th high. Added line on the high for May 21st to track as the current high or pivot point. The second chart below shows the May 21st pivot point chart and the leadership on the downside. It gives some clarity to what you are seeing on the April 18th chart.
Utilities, Telecom, Consumer Staples, Energy and Consumer Services are leading the downside move. Healthcare jumped into the picture as all ten sectors are pointing lower at this point. This activity today reversed some of the damage with moves back above support.
April 18th Pivot Point:
May 21st Pivot Point:
The current trend started on November 15th and has been tested by the the ‘fiscal cliff” issue bottoming on December 28th, The February 25th low pivot point was prompted by FOMC rumor of withdrawing stimulus, Cyprus on March 14th and the April test on economic worries. The current shift off the May 21st high is a result of the Fed’s potential withdrawal of stimulus going forward. The original target for the move was 1550-1575 which has been obtained and exceeded by nearly 100 points is now being tested on the downside. Watch and don’t be fooled by the analyst… charts don’t lie. 1597 is the key support and brings the trend line into play for the intermediate term trend. (pink trendline on the SPY white line)
Sector Rotation of Interest:
Technology (XLK) – The pullback from the move higher tested $31.40 as support. If support holds $31.45 it would validate some leadership for the sector in the current pullback. Otherwise the shorts will be looking for the opportunity. Developing a wedge consolidation pattern at the end of the chart. Broke support and now we have to see if the short side becomes the better trade.
Consumer Staples (XLP) – This was the first big break lower for the major sectors. The drop below support at $40.75 was a big negative and move for the sector. Short setup if it continues below the $40 level. The move is a result of higher interest rates and pressure on these stocks, not to mention the valuations were ahead of themselves. Bounce off support is being tested again at the $40 mark.
Healthcare (XLV) – This was another break lower in the major sectors as XLV failed to hold $48.75. Watching to see how Monday plays out, but the $47.93 level is the key support. Watch to see how it follows through and if any opportunities result from the move. All of the subsectors worked lower within their respective consolidation ranges. Breaking down with the next key level $47.20.
Energy (XLE) – Big pullback on Friday as crude and natural gas broke lower. The $80 support is in play and the downside from there is the big question mark. Gave up support on selling Wednesday… Watch.
From the May 17th high we have seen the dollar gradually decline. The last six trading days the downside has accelerated and we added UDN (Two Egg Model) as a position.
- UDN – The dollar has been trading sideways and has now move lower breaking the uptrend. Added UDN as the down dollar play for now. Two EGG Model.
- FXE – Added a play on the currency against the dollar at $128.50. Sector Rotation Model.
3) Tracking Bond Sectors of Interest:
- 30 Year Yield = 3.23% – down 3 basis points — TLT = $115.22 down 7 cents.
- 10 Year Yield = 2.07% – down 3 basis point — IEF = $105.70 up 13 cents.
Treasury Bonds – Complete reversal on the yield has pushed the bond lower and broke below the previous low. Not a place to be other than short the bond. TBT. Hitting against March highs again at $69. Raise your stops and look for a short term rally in bonds and a test back to $66.50 on TBT. Came close to the stop on selling the last couple of days.
High Yield Bonds – HYG = 6.5% yield. No positions currently as it plays out.
Corporate Bonds – LQD = 3.6% yield. No positions currently. Downside risk in play.
Municipal Bonds – MUB = 2.8% tax-free yield. No positions currently. Downside risk in play.
Convertible Bonds – CWB = 3.6% yield. No positions currently. Starting to trade sideways.
4) Commodities – Sector Summary:
- Commodity Index (DBC) – Developed into a trading range and just need to practice patience short term.
- Natural Gas – (UNG) Testing the $21.15 support level short term. No plays currently
- Crude Oil – (OIL) Reversed testing support again at the $21.20 level. No direction with worries globally and domestically for demand have weighed down price and direction short term.
- Gold – (GLD) Cooked in a squat. Can make up its mind up or down. Looking for break above the $137 level.
- Palladium – PALL – Move above $73.70 is worth a trade on the continuation of the upside. $72.65 stop, $$77 target. Patience for the metal to break higher.
Commodities Rotation Chart:
I have moved the starting point forward on the chart to May 1st as a potential uptrend. As you can see that didn’t happen and DBC has moved sideways since the start point. PALL is moving higher and leading the metals. Base metals (DBB) made a near term move back to the upside. The balance of the sector is vertically challenged. Corn has moved lower of late negating any trade short term. Be patient and let the winners define themselves before going into sector. Natural Gas (UNG) is holding steady near support.
DBC – PowerShares Commodity Index ETF (click to view) Composite of 14 commodities tracking index.
5) Global Markets:
Global markets have shifted to the downside over global economic slowing. The May 21st pivot point lower has been more dramatic than the US markets, but the pivot correlates to the struggles starting in the US markets. The Asian connection is hurting the overall index. The chart below shows the shift over the last week plus on the downside. We don’t own any positions in the global markets and for now I am still willing to sit on the sidelines. EWJ leading the downside move with some volatility.
EFA – iShares EAFE Index ETF (click to view) 10 Developed Countries making up Europe (66.6%), Australia (8.9%) and Far East (24.5%). (Weighting of fund) Not most balanced, but give indication of global markets.
- FXP– Added short play on China as the downside has been the leader. Sector Rotation Model.
- EWJ – Leading lower as fast as it did to the upside. Still looking for an upside move from the country. Watch for bounce play to follow through as this unfolds.
6) Real Estate (REITS):
Real Estate Index (REITS) – The sector broke the uptrend and signaled exits. Moved to Cash versus holding the sector short term. Shorts are dangerous here, but technically that is the call.
- IYR – Hit our stop at $73.50 and has continued to move lower. Out for now.
- RWO – SPDR Global Real Estate ETF hit stop and watching for now.
- MDIV – First Trust Multi- Asset Income ETF is a good alternative to picking through all the choices of income funds. This multi-assets income fund pays a 5% dividend. Watch the downside currently in play with rising rates.
7) Global Fixed Income:
Sector Summary: Complete reversal low and uninterested in the sector currently.
- Watching these funds for a bottom.
- PAFCX – Spike to the downside.
- PICB – Breaking aggressively lower short term. 3.1% dividend.
- EMB – Breaking lower still no support. 4.3% dividend yield.
- PCY – Big downside move and break of support. The current dividend yield is 4.8%.
Watch and play according to your risk tolerance on any position taken. Everyone has different trading styles and you have to find what works for you and your personality. Don’t put yourself in positions you don’t understand or take risk you can’t tolerate. Not every trade results in a profit, but controlling your risk will limit the downside losses.